What moves the US dollar
The US dollar is set against the rest by one bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed), and by the things that bank has to react to. Here is the rate it has set, what it is aiming at, the releases that move this currency and what is on the calendar this week.
Rate and calendar as the research last recorded them, Wed Sep 23, 2026, 3:14pm.
In short
- Central bank
- Federal Reserve (Fed)
- Policy rate
- 3.75 to 4.00%
- Next meeting
- 28 Oct 2026
- What the bank targets
- Maximum employment and stable prices, with inflation at 2% over the longer run
The three things that move it
- 1The Federal Reserve has two jobs at once, so both the inflation figure and the jobs report can take over in the same month.
- 2It is the currency the world borrows in, which is why it can rise on bad American news when markets turn cautious.
- 3Rate expectations move it more than the rate itself: what the market thinks the Fed will do next year is the price you are trading.
The world's main reserve currency. Tends to gain when markets turn cautious.
On the calendar this week
Nothing of the highest impact for the USD this week. On weeks like that the currency drifts on the rate gap and the risk mood instead.
Times in Amsterdam. The whole week for all eight is on the calendar page.
The other seven
A currency is only strong or weak against another one, so the page next door matters as much as this one.
- EUR Euro
- JPY Japanese yen
- GBP British pound
- CHF Swiss franc
- AUD Australian dollar
- NZD New Zealand dollar
- CAD Canadian dollar
What the rate gap between two of them pays is on the rate differentials page, and how a pair is scored from two currencies is on the fundamental bias page.
Questions about the US dollar
What moves the US dollar?
What the Federal Reserve (Fed) does and is expected to do, the releases that bank steers on, the mood of the wider market, and anything political big enough to be priced. A currency only moves against another one, so the same questions apply to the other side of the pair.
Which central bank sets the USD rate, and what is it aiming at?
The Federal Reserve (Fed). Its target: maximum employment and stable prices, with inflation at 2% over the longer run. A release matters most when it speaks to that target.
Where can I see the current USD policy rate?
At the top of this page, next to the next scheduled meeting, and next to the other seven on our rate differentials page. It follows the research, so a decision shows up on the day it is made. All eight rates
Do you publish a USD forecast?
No. We publish a reading of now: how the currency scores against the other seven today and why, rewritten when the news changes. Nobody here will tell you where a currency will be next month. How past calls turned out