A position that lives for days needs a reason that lasts days
Swing trading and macro run on the same clock. A central bank stance does not change between lunch and dinner, and neither does the reason a currency is the strongest of the eight. That is why the horizon here is the trading day and the week, and why the research says when the reason is gone.
14 days free, no card needed to start.
A week, from Monday to the exit
- 1
Monday: the field
The full outlook goes out Monday morning: where the eight sit, what changed over the weekend, and which currencies have a reason behind them rather than a run behind them.
- 2
The entry: your level, not our moment
The setups name the pairs where a strong currency meets a weak one. Where you get in is a decision for your own chart, and nothing here will make it for you.
- 3
While you hold: the reason, not the candle
Each morning the ranking is rebuilt and the update log says what changed. A setup that stays in the list has kept its reason; one that drops out has lost it.
- 4
The exit: when the list drops it
That is the signal this research can give you. In our own record the move tends to give back in the days after a setup leaves the list, which says the list itself is the exit rather than a fixed number of days.
How long a reason actually lasts
We measured our own lists rather than guessing. Since January 2024, a setup stayed in the top 3 for one morning about two thirds of the time. The rest stayed for two to five mornings, and those were the ones that carried the most while they lasted.
The lesson for a swing trader is not that longer is better. It is that the length is decided by the news, not by a rule, so the thing to watch is whether the reason is still there each morning. Holding a macro trade after its reason has gone is the most expensive habit in this way of working.
The same honesty in the other direction: over one day the mechanical part of our model sits close to a coin flip, and holding those picks for ten or twenty days made it worse rather than better. Every day of the live record, including the bad ones, is on the track record.
What it gives a swing trader
- A shortlist of pairs where two currencies disagree for a reason you can read.
- The releases ahead for both legs, so a four day hold does not walk into a rate decision by accident.
- A written reason per currency, so you can disagree with the argument rather than with a number.
- A record of how the same calls turned out before, day by day.
What it will never give you
- An entry, a stop or a target. Those are yours, on your chart, at your size.
- A promise about the week. A reading is a reading, and it changes when the news changes.
- Alerts to act on. There is no signal channel, and there never will be.
- A different view from the one your neighbour gets. Everyone sees the same research at the same minute, which is on the about page for a reason.
Questions from swing traders
How long does a macro bias stay valid?
Until the news changes it. In our own record since January 2024 a setup stayed in the top 3 for a single morning about two thirds of the time, and the rest stayed two to five mornings. The length is decided by events, not by a rule.
When should I close a macro trade?
When the reason is gone, which shows up as the setup leaving the list. In our measurements the move tends to give back in the days after that, which is the closest thing to an exit signal this kind of research can offer.
Do I get an alert when the bias changes?
No. The ranking is rebuilt every morning and checked hourly on trading days, and the update log says what changed and why. There is no alert channel and no signal service.
Is a weekly outlook enough to trade on?
Not on its own. It gives you the side and the shortlist; the entry, the stop and the size stay with you, and a week where every currency sits in the middle of the range is a week to trade smaller.