What a score means
Every currency gets a score from 0 to 100. A higher score means the macro backdrop supports that currency more than the others this week. Scores are relative: they are meant to be compared with each other, not read as a forecast of how far a currency will move.
The four pillars
A score is the sum of four pillars. Each pillar has a maximum number of points.
- Risk sentimentup to 40 points
- How markets are treating risk right now, read from equities, volatility, credit and commodities. Some currencies tend to gain when investors turn cautious, such as JPY, CHF and USD. Others tend to gain when investors are confident, such as AUD, NZD and CAD. This pillar scores each currency against the current mood.
- Fundamentalsup to 35 points
- The central bank’s stance and the direction it is moving in, the level of interest rates, the economic data the central bank is focused on (inflation, the labor market or growth), and the fiscal position.
- Geopoliticsup to 20 points
- Trade policy, conflicts, elections and political risk, and energy shocks that affect a currency.
- Price strengthup to 5 points
- How the currency has traded so far this week against the other majors. It is kept small on purpose: it can confirm or question the macro view, but never overrule it.
Reading a pair
A pair’s score is the score of the first currency minus the score of the second. On 17 September 2026 EUR scored 46 and USD scored 72, so EUR/USD scored 46 minus 72, which is -26: strongly bearish. The larger the gap, the stronger the label, from neutral through slightly bullish or bearish to strongly bullish or bearish.
The breakdown per pillar shows what drives the gap. Positive numbers favor the first currency, negative numbers favor the second.
Setups and their status
The top 3 setups are the pairs with the widest gap between a strong and a weak currency, adjusted for whether this week’s price action and conviction agree. The list avoids repeating the same currency where possible, so it doesn’t show three versions of the same trade. Every setup carries a live status:
- Confirmed by price
- Price action this week is moving in the direction of the macro view.
- News ahead
- High-impact news for one of the two currencies is due soon, so the picture can change quickly.
- Stretched
- The pair has already moved unusually far in a short time, so chasing the move carries extra risk.
- Price against
- Price is moving against the macro view.
- Neutral
- Price has not picked a clear direction yet.
Setups are research, not trade instructions. They come without entry, stop or target levels.
Conviction
Each currency carries a conviction label: high, mid or low. It shows whether recent price action agrees with the currency’s rank. Low conviction means the market is not confirming the macro view yet, so that currency is treated with more caution when setups are selected.
Event risk
High-impact releases, such as central bank decisions, inflation, jobs and GDP data, are flagged ahead of time. The flag appears on the currency and on every setup that includes it, so you can see when a position would be exposed to a scheduled release.
Time horizon and updates
The view covers the current trading week, Monday to Friday. A full outlook is published on Monday morning. After that the research is checked every hour on trading days and updated as soon as new data or news changes the picture, and every change is logged with the reason behind it.
Sources
Primary sources come first, such as central bank statements and official statistics. News coverage adds context. Score changes link to where the information came from.
How results are measured
Every trading day, the top 3 setups of that day are measured at the opening of the London session, 08:00 in London: from the first opening after they were published to the next one, so a list from Friday runs to Monday and gets its result on Monday morning. A setup counts as right when the pair moved in its direction, and the size of that move is shown with it. When a newer list starts from the same rate, the newer one counts, so every move counts once. The current model has been live since 15 September 2026, and every day is shown, including the misses.
What stays private
The exact scoring rules, thresholds and formulas, and the working process behind the research. That protects the research from being copied, while the reasons behind every score stay visible to members.
Limitations
A macro score describes the backdrop, not the timing. Currencies can move against the macro view for days or weeks, and unexpected news can change the picture at any moment. Use the research as one input next to your own analysis and risk management. MacroSetup is not investment advice.