A fundamental bias for every major currency
A fundamental bias is the direction the economy behind a currency argues for, before you look at a chart. MacroSetup publishes one for each of the eight majors every trading morning, with the reason written next to it and the price check beside that.
Updated every morning, checked every hour on trading days.
In short
- What it is
- A direction per currency, bullish or bearish against the rest, from the economy behind it rather than the chart in front of you.
- What it is built from
- Four parts that add up to a score from 0 to 100: risk sentiment, fundamentals, geopolitics and the price of that week.
- Who it covers
- USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD, and all 28 pairs between them.
- How often
- A full run each morning around 08:00 Amsterdam time, an hourly check on trading days, and an extra run when something big happens.
- What it is not
- Not a signal and not advice. No entry, no stop, no target, and the same research for every member at the same moment.
- How it is checked
- Every day's top 3 setups are measured on price, from one London opening to the next, and published with the misses included.
What goes into the bias
The four parts below are weighted the same way for every currency, every day. That is the point of a fixed weighting: the dollar does not get a better hearing than the New Zealand dollar because it is in the news more.
| Part | Weight | What it reads | Why it is weighted that way |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | up to 40 points | Equity indices, the VIX and how it moved, credit, oil, copper and gold, and how the defensive currencies are doing against the cyclical ones. | It is the part that moves all eight currencies at once, so it has to be read first. |
| Fundamentals | up to 35 points | The central bank's stance and where it is in its cycle, the policy rate against the others, the releases the bank itself says it watches, and the fiscal picture. | This is the slow part, and the part that decides which currency wins a long stretch. |
| Geopolitics | up to 20 points | Trade measures, conflicts, elections and anything a government does that a market has to price. | It can override the other three for days, and it is not on any calendar. |
| Price this week | up to 5 points | How the currency has moved against the other seven since Friday's close. | Small on purpose. Price is a check on the story, not the story. |
The exact bands and thresholds stay ours, for the same reason a fund does not publish its book. What every score is built from, and the sentence behind each one, is on the methodology page.
From a bias to a pair
A bias on its own is half a trade. A pair is two biases against each other, so the score of a pair is simply the first currency's score minus the second's. The wider that gap, the more the macro is pulling one way.
The three widest gaps that pass the rules become the setups of the day. They say which currency the macro favours against which, and nothing about when to get in. That part is yours: most members wait for their own level on the chart, with the bias deciding which side they are allowed to take.
It is the oldest idea in currency trading, and traders say it plainly on the forums: buy the strongest, sell the weakest. The work is in deciding which is which, and in saying why.
What the bias does not do
- It does not time anything. A currency can be the strongest of the eight and still fall for three days.
- It does not know your risk. Position size, stops and how much you can lose on a challenge stay your decisions.
- It is not a forecast of tomorrow. It is a reading of today, and it changes when the news changes.
- It is measured in public. Every day's setups are checked against price on the track record, hits and misses.
Questions about the bias
What is a fundamental bias in forex?
It is a direction for a currency that comes from the economy behind it: the central bank, the rate level, the data of the moment, the risk mood and the politics. It says which side of a pair the macro argues for, not where to enter or when.
I am a technical trader. How does this fit my charts?
It narrows what you look at. The bias picks the pairs where a strong currency meets a weak one, and you still take the entry from your own chart. Traders on the forums call it trading technically with a fundamental bias, and that is exactly the order we mean it in.
What does this do that reading the news myself does not?
The same four parts are read for all eight currencies, every day, with the same weights, and written down with the reason. Reading the news yourself means the loudest story of the week wins, which is the mistake a fixed weighting is there to prevent.
How often does the bias change?
A full run every morning around 08:00 Amsterdam time, a check every hour on trading days, and an extra run when something big happens. Most days the ranking barely moves; on a central bank day it can turn over completely.
Is the bias useful for day trading?
As a filter, yes: it tells you which way the week leans and which pairs are worth your screen time. As a trigger, no. Nothing here says buy now, and the horizon is the trading day and the week, not the next fifteen minutes. How the calls are measured
Do you publish the exact formula?
No. What each part reads and how much it weighs is public, the bands and thresholds are not. Everything a member sees carries the reason behind it, and every call is measured on price afterwards, so the claim can be checked without the recipe. The methodology in full