US GDP: what the growth report is and how it moves the dollar

US GDP, gross domestic product, is the quarterly measure of everything the American economy produces, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It is the broadest read on US growth, and a figure far from the forecast can change what the market expects from the Federal Reserve and move the dollar with it. Much of the quarter is already known from monthly data by then, so the dollar usually moves more on the first estimate than on the two that follow.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

US GDP in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
When: Three times per quarter, near the end of the month, at 8:30 in the morning New York time: the advance estimate about four weeks after the quarter ends, then the second and third estimates a month apart. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 13:30 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates, which can include a late-October release.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Real GDP growth at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, against the forecast
Three estimates: Advance, second and third, a month apart, each on fuller data
Covers: The quarter before: the July to September estimate comes at the end of October
Also inside: The quarter's PCE price index, with and without food and energy

What is in the US GDP report

The Bureau of Economic Analysis adds up the value of the final goods and services produced in the United States in a quarter. The headline is real GDP, which takes out the effect of rising prices, so it shows growth in volume.

The report splits that growth into consumer spending, investment, government spending and exports. Imports are subtracted, because they were produced somewhere else.

It also carries the quarter's price indexes, among them the PCE price index with and without food and energy. On the current BEA schedule, GDP comes out at the same time as the monthly personal income and outlays report, which holds the monthly PCE inflation figures.

Why US GDP moves the dollar

Strong growth gives the Fed less reason to cut rates, and weak growth gives it more. A figure well above the forecast tends to lift US yields and the dollar; a figure well below it does the opposite.

The dollar does not always follow the growth number. The price figures released that same morning can point the other way, and when they do, they can decide the move, because inflation speaks more directly to the next Fed decision.

GDP also looks back at a quarter that ended weeks earlier. BEA builds the estimate partly from monthly figures such as retail sales that the market has already seen, which takes some of the surprise out of it.

How to read US GDP against the forecast

Start with real GDP at its annual rate against the forecast. The rate is the quarter's change scaled up to a yearly pace, so it looks about four times larger than a plain quarter-on-quarter figure, the way many other countries quote growth.

Then look at what drove it. Inventories and trade can swing the headline without saying much about demand, which is why BEA also shows real final sales to private domestic purchasers: consumer spending plus private fixed investment.

The advance estimate leans on BEA assumptions where source data for the quarter are still missing. It is revised in the second and third estimates, and those revisions usually move the dollar less than the first figure did.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	USD vs basket
30 Sept 2026	14:30	30 Sept to 1 Oct	+0.40%

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about US GDP

What time is US GDP released?

At 8:30 in the morning New York time. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 13:30 in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates, which can include a late-October release.

What is the difference between the advance, second and third GDP estimate?

They are three passes at the same quarter. The advance estimate comes about four weeks after the quarter ends, and the second and third follow a month apart, each with more complete source data. The first one usually moves the dollar most, because it is the first full look at the quarter.

Why is US GDP shown as an annual rate?

BEA takes the change on the quarter, removes normal seasonal swings and scales it up to a yearly pace. That makes it about four times larger than a quarter-on-quarter figure, so compare like with like when you set it next to growth from other countries.

Does strong GDP make the dollar go up?

Usually, when it beats the forecast, because it gives the Fed less reason to cut rates. The price figures released the same morning can pull the other way, and on those days they often decide the move.