US PCE inflation: the Fed's own inflation gauge and how it moves the dollar

US PCE inflation is the change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, the measure the Federal Reserve sets its 2% inflation target on. It comes out after CPI and PPI for the same month, so much of it can be worked out in advance. The dollar moves when core PCE lands away from that estimate.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

US PCE inflation in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
When: Monthly, late in the month, at 8:30 in the morning New York time, in the Personal Income and Outlays report. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 13:30 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Core PCE month on month: the index without food and energy, against the forecast
Central bank that watches it: The Federal Reserve, whose 2% target is set on the annual change in this index
Comes in: The Personal Income and Outlays report, with income, spending and the saving rate
Covers: The month before, so the release at the end of September holds August's prices

What is in the US PCE inflation report

The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes the PCE price index each month in its Personal Income and Outlays report. The index measures the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services.

The release gives the change on the month and on the year for the full index and for the index excluding food and energy, known as core PCE. The same report holds personal income, consumer spending and the saving rate.

Most PCE prices are built from consumer and producer price indexes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has already published. Some parts, airfares among them, come from the producer price index rather than CPI.

How PCE differs from CPI

CPI covers what urban households pay out of their own pocket. PCE is wider: it also counts spending made on behalf of households, such as medical care paid for by employers through health insurance and by programmes like Medicare and Medicaid.

The weights differ as well. Shelter weighs much more in CPI than in PCE, and medical care weighs more in PCE. The PCE index also uses a formula that allows for people switching between goods as prices change, which is one more reason the two measures move apart.

Why US PCE inflation moves the dollar

The Fed defines its goal as 2% a year on this index, so PCE is the number its projections and speeches refer to. A core figure above the forecast makes a higher path for rates more likely, which lifts US yields and usually the dollar.

In practice the surprise is often small. CPI and PPI have already come out for the same month, and economists turn them into a close estimate of core PCE before the release.

How to read US PCE inflation against the forecast

Core month on month is the line that matters. Because the forecast is built from CPI and PPI, the distance between the figure and the forecast is usually small, and a gap of a tenth of a percent on core is already a real surprise.

Spending in the same report adds context. Firm prices with strong spending point the same way, while weak spending can soften the reaction to a hot price figure.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	USD vs basket
30 Sept 2026	14:30	30 Sept to 1 Oct	+0.40%

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about US PCE inflation

What time is US PCE inflation released?

At 8:30 in the morning New York time, in the Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 13:30 in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What is core PCE?

The PCE price index excluding food and energy. Those two swing with harvests and the oil price, so core says more about the trend, and it is the line the market reads first.

Why does the Fed use PCE instead of CPI?

The Fed's committee defines its 2% goal on the annual change in the PCE price index. PCE also covers more than CPI, including spending made on behalf of households, such as health care paid for by employers and government.

Does PCE move the dollar as much as CPI?

Usually less. CPI and PPI for the same month come out first, so much of PCE is known in advance. It moves the dollar when core lands away from the estimate built from those two.