Safe haven currencies, and which ones still work
Safe haven currencies are the ones money runs to when markets get frightened: the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and, traditionally, the US dollar. We measured whether they still are. On the 13 days the S&P 500 fell more than 2% from January 2024 to September 2026, the franc rose against the other majors on 12 and the yen on 12. The dollar rose on 5.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Measured on the 13 days the S&P 500 fell more than 2%, January 2024 to September 2026.
Safe haven currencies ranked: the worst days for stocks, 2024 to 2026
The eight majors ranked by how they moved on the 13 days the S&P 500 closed more than 2% lower, from January 2024 to September 2026. The Swiss franc came first, with an average move of +0.69%, and the Australian dollar last, at -0.73%. How we measured it, and where the havens failed, is further down.
| Currency | Average move | Days it rose |
|---|---|---|
| Swiss franc CHF | +0.69% | 12 of 13 |
| Japanese yen JPY | +0.63% | 12 of 13 |
| Euro EUR | +0.24% | 10 of 13 |
| Canadian dollar CAD | -0.07% | 5 of 13 |
| US dollar USD | -0.14% | 5 of 13 |
| British pound GBP | -0.17% | 3 of 13 |
| New Zealand dollar NZD | -0.45% | 2 of 13 |
| Australian dollar AUD | -0.73% | 1 of 13 |
Each currency against an equal basket of the eight, from one US close to the next (16:00 New York), from hourly market prices and the S&P 500's daily closes.
The three safe haven currencies, and why
A haven is not a country people trust. It is a currency that gets bought mechanically when positions are closed, and that is a matter of who owes what to whom.
CHF
Swiss franc
Switzerland owns far more abroad than the world owns in Switzerland, and its rates have long been among the lowest anywhere. Nervous money comes home and cheap money that was borrowed in francs has to be paid back, and both buy the currency.
What breaks it: Its own central bank. A country this dependent on exports does not welcome a rising currency, and the bank has a long history of saying so.
JPY
Japanese yen
The same two forces, larger. Japan owns far more abroad than the world owns in Japan, the third-largest such surplus in the world after Germany and China, and the yen has been the funding currency of choice for a generation, so every position financed in yen is a buy order waiting to happen.
What breaks it: The Bank of Japan and Japanese yields. When they are the story, the yen trades on its own news and ignores the mood entirely.
USD
US dollar
Not a haven for the same reason. The world borrows, invoices and settles in dollars, so when funding tightens everyone needs them at once. Depth is its own kind of safety: you can always get out of a dollar.
What breaks it: Where the shock started. A crisis that begins in the United States sends the flow to the franc and the yen instead.
Did the safe havens hold? Measured on the worst days
We took every day from January 2024 to September 2026 on which the S&P 500 closed more than 2% lower, 13 in all, and measured how each of the eight majors moved against the other seven from one US close to the next.
The franc and the yen did their job: each rose on 12 of the 13 days, by +0.69% and +0.63% on average. The Australian dollar rose on only 1 of them.
The dollar is the surprise. It rose on only 5 of the 13 days. It still rallied when funding got tight, +1.01% on 18 December 2024, but on 3 and 10 April 2025, when the American tariffs hit hardest, it fell 1.30% and 1.72% while the franc rose 1.40% and 2.15%. When the shock starts in the United States, money leaves the dollar instead of running to it.
And the havens fail too. On 20 January 2026 the yen fell 0.78% while stocks dropped 2.06%, and on 5 June 2026 the franc slipped 0.21%.
Which pairs show it first
A haven on its own tells you little. Put one against a currency that needs the world to be doing well, and you have a thermometer. AUD/JPY is the oldest one in the book: Australia sells raw materials into growth, Japan funds the trade, so the pair falls first and hardest when confidence goes. It fell on 12 of the 13 worst days above, by 1.36% on average.
NZD/JPY does the same with a smaller economy behind it. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF react to European nerves specifically, which makes them useful when the trouble is regional rather than global.
The pairs to distrust in a panic are the ones with a haven on both sides. USD/JPY and USD/CHF can go either way in a real shock, because two flows are pulling against each other and the winner depends on where the shock began.
Haven and carry are the same coin
The currencies with the lowest rates are the ones people borrow to buy something better paid. That makes them the funding side of the carry trade, and it makes them the havens, for the same reason: when those positions close, the funding currency gets bought back.
So a haven rally and a carry unwind are not two events. They are one event described from two sides, which is why they always arrive together and why they are fast.
What that pays, and what it costs when it turns, is on the carry trade page.
The part most explanations leave out
A safe haven is a behaviour, not a property. A currency earns the label by how it acts in a crisis, and it can stop acting that way for weeks at a time without anything being wrong with the theory. Usually because its own central bank has become the louder story, or because the shock is one that lands on that country directly.
This is the mistake that costs money. A trader reads that the franc is a haven, sees a bad headline and buys it, and then watches it do nothing for a fortnight because the market is busy with something else entirely.
Which is why we score the behaviour rather than the reputation. Risk sentiment carries the heaviest weight of the four parts of our score, and part of reading it is checking whether the havens are actually doing their job this week. When a currency goes against its own profile, that is worth saying out loud rather than assuming the label still holds.
Questions about safe havens
What is a safe haven currency?
A currency investors move into when they want to lose less, rather than earn more. In forex that means the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and, traditionally, the US dollar. It is a behaviour and not a property: a currency is a haven for exactly as long as the market treats it as one.
Are the franc and the yen still safe havens?
Yes, by our measurement. On the 13 days the S&P 500 fell more than 2% from January 2024 to September 2026, the franc rose against the other majors on 12 and the yen on 12, by +0.69% and +0.63% on average. Both countries own far more abroad than the world owns in them, and both fund positions elsewhere, so when markets turn that money comes home and buys the currency.
Is the dollar still a safe haven?
Less than its reputation says. On the 13 worst days for stocks from January 2024 to September 2026 it rose on only 5, and moved -0.14% on average. It still rallies when funding gets tight, as on 18 December 2024 (+1.01%), but when the shock starts in the United States, as with the tariffs of April 2025, money leaves it and the franc and the yen do the work instead.
Which pairs show the risk mood best?
The ones with a haven on one side and a cyclical currency on the other. AUD/JPY is the classic, because Australia sells commodities to a growing world and Japan funds it: it fell on 12 of the 13 worst days for stocks from January 2024 to September 2026, by 1.36% on average. USD/CHF and EUR/CHF react to European nerves, and the yen crosses to global ones.
Do safe havens always work?
No, and assuming they do is the expensive part. A currency can ignore its haven reputation for weeks, usually when its own central bank or its own economy is the louder story, or when the shock is one that hurts it directly. That is why we score the behaviour every day instead of trusting the label. Risk on and risk off