US CPI: what the inflation report is and how it moves the dollar

US CPI, the consumer price index, is the monthly measure of how much the prices that American households pay have risen. It is the first full read on US inflation each month, and because it shapes what the Federal Reserve does next, it is one of the few releases that can move the dollar against every other major in a single minute.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

US CPI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
When: Monthly, usually in the second or third week, at 8:30 in the morning New York time. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 13:30 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Core CPI month on month: prices without food and energy, against the forecast
Central bank that watches it: The Federal Reserve, whose target is 2% inflation
Covers: The month before, so the September report holds August's prices

What is in the US CPI report

The Bureau of Labor Statistics prices a fixed basket of goods and services every month: food, energy, rents, cars, medical care, airfares and much more. The headline index covers all of it, for urban consumers, and is published as a change on the month and on the year.

Core CPI leaves out food and energy, the two parts that swing most with the weather and the oil price. It is the number that says more about where inflation is heading, because a central bank cannot do much about a harvest or a pipeline.

Shelter, the cost of housing, is the biggest single block in the index, at about a third of it. It moves slowly and with a delay of months, which is why traders also watch core services without housing, a line often called supercore.

Why US CPI moves the dollar

The Fed raises rates when inflation runs too hot and cuts when it cools. A CPI figure above the forecast makes a higher rate more likely, US yields go up, and the dollar usually follows. A figure below it does the opposite.

The Fed's own target is set on a different measure, PCE inflation, which comes out about two weeks later. CPI still moves the market more, because it comes first and most of PCE can be worked out from it.

How to read US CPI against the forecast

The market has priced the forecast before the release. What moves the dollar is the distance between the figure and that forecast, and on CPI the distance that matters is often a single tenth of a percent on core month on month.

A hot headline driven by petrol tends to fade within the hour. A hot core figure, and above all hot services, tends to last, because that is the part the Fed cannot wait out.

CPI is barely revised afterwards, unlike the jobs report, so the first read is close to the final one.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first US CPI after that date will show here with the US dollar's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about US CPI

What time is US CPI released?

At 8:30 in the morning New York time. That is 14:30 in Amsterdam and 13:30 in London for most of the year, an hour earlier in Amsterdam in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?

Core CPI leaves out food and energy. Those two swing with harvests and the oil price, so core is the better guide to the trend, and it is the line the market and the Fed watch most closely.

Does a high CPI make the dollar go up?

Usually, when it is higher than forecast. It makes a higher Fed rate more likely, which lifts US yields and draws money into the dollar. A figure that is high but exactly as forecast moves little, because it was already priced.

Is CPI the Fed's target measure?

No. The Fed targets 2% on PCE inflation, which comes out about two weeks after CPI. CPI moves the market more because it arrives first.