What is in the US retail sales report
The Census Bureau publishes advance estimates of retail and food services sales about two weeks after the month ends. They come from a sample of about 4,800 firms, weighted to stand for more than three million retail and food services businesses.
The headline is total sales, as a change on the month and on the year. Next to it come totals without motor vehicles and parts, without gasoline stations, and without both, plus a figure for each kind of business, from grocery stores and restaurants to nonstore retailers such as online shops.
The figures are in dollars and are not adjusted for price changes. A month of higher prices can lift sales even when people buy no more than before.
Why US retail sales move the dollar
Retail sales are the earliest hard figure on consumer spending for the month, ahead of the fuller spending data in the PCE report. Strong sales point to an economy that can carry higher rates for longer, which tends to lift US yields and the dollar.
Weak sales do the opposite. They raise the odds of a slower economy and of rate cuts, and the dollar usually eases.
How to read US retail sales against the forecast
Car sales and petrol prices swing the headline from month to month. That is why traders look straight at the totals without vehicles and without petrol stations, which follow the trend in what households buy.
Because the figures are not adjusted for prices, set them against inflation for the same month. Sales up a few tenths in a month when prices rose as much mean volumes were flat.
The advance figure rests on a small sample, and the previous month is revised in every release. A strong new month on top of a downward revision is a weaker report than the headline suggests.
What the US dollar did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | USD vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Sept 2026 | 14:30 | 16 Sept to 17 Sept | +0.42% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.