It is about expectations, not facts
The most common mistake is to read a fact and expect a move. A central bank raises its rate, so the currency should rise. It often does not, because the market had priced that rise in weeks ago. What moves a price is the difference between what happens and what was expected.
That is why the same news can move a currency both ways. A rise of a quarter point with a warning that it was the last one can send a currency down. A hold with a hint that more is coming can send it up. Read the direction of the surprise, not the headline.
1. The central bank, and what it says next
Interest rates decide where money wants to sit. A currency whose bank is raising, or is expected to raise, tends to attract money, because the return on holding it goes up. But the level matters less than the direction and the tone: what the bank said about the next meeting, how the vote split, whether the language got firmer or softer than last time.
Every major currency has one bank behind it, each with its own job. The Fed has to balance jobs and prices; the ECB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada aim at 2% inflation; the Swiss National Bank keeps inflation below 2%; Australia aims between 2 and 3%, New Zealand between 1 and 3%. The markets page lists them all with what each one is watching.
2. The data the bank is watching
Not every number matters equally, and which one matters changes. When a bank says it is worried about inflation, the inflation figure moves the currency most. When it says the labour market is cooling, the jobs report takes over. The trick is to follow the bank's own focus, and then read each release against what economists expected, not against zero.
- Inflation: above expectations makes a rate rise more likely, or a cut less likely, which usually supports the currency.
- Jobs: a strong labour market gives a bank room to keep rates high.
- Growth: GDP, retail sales and the business surveys tell you whether the economy can take those rates.
3. How much risk the market wants
Some currencies do well when investors are nervous, others when investors are confident. In a shaky week money tends to move towards the yen, the Swiss franc and the dollar. In a calm week, when shares are rising and volatility is low, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar usually do better, helped by commodity prices.
This is why a currency can fall on good news from its own country: if the whole market turns cautious that day, the mood outweighs the national story. A macro view that ignores risk appetite will be wrong for days at a time.
4. Politics, trade and energy
Elections, trade rules, conflict and energy shocks move currencies through the same two channels: they change what a central bank is likely to do, and they change where investors want to keep their money. An oil shock lifts the Canadian dollar and hurts importers such as Japan. A trade fight hits the currency of the country that sells the most.
What price itself tells you
Recent price action is worth something. If a currency is already the strongest of the week, the market is agreeing with the story. If it is the weakest while the story is good, either the story is wrong or something bigger is going on.
But price is a thermometer, not a cause. That is why it gets a small weight in our own score: 5 of 100 points. It can confirm the picture or raise a question. It cannot replace the reasons behind it.
Putting it together
Take any pair and ask four questions. Which of the two banks is the more likely to tighten? Which one got better news last? Does the mood of the week favour the safe haven or the risk taker? And is anything political about to hit either side? The pair with the clearest answers in one direction is the one worth looking at on a chart.
That is exactly what MacroSetup does every trading day: four pillars add up to a score from 0 to 100 per currency, and the widest gaps become the day's setups. The methodology explains how each pillar is weighed, and how it works shows a week in practice.
What this does not give you
A macro view gives you direction, not timing. A currency can stay weak for a week and then move in a day. Entries, stops and position size stay your own job, and so does deciding whether a trade is worth taking at all.