US consumer confidence: the Conference Board index and how it moves the dollar

US consumer confidence is the monthly index from The Conference Board that measures how American households judge business conditions, jobs and income, now and over the next six months. It moves the dollar less than hard data on spending or jobs, but a large surprise, or a sharp change in how people see the job market, can shift the view on growth and on the Fed.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

US consumer confidence in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: The Conference Board
When: Monthly, on the last Tuesday of the month, at 10:00 in the morning New York time. That is 16:00 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 15:00 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: The Consumer Confidence Index, against the forecast
Two halves: The Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index
Base: 1985 = 100
Watched inside: The share saying jobs are plentiful minus the share saying they are hard to get

What is in the US consumer confidence index

The Conference Board publishes the Consumer Confidence Index, set at 100 for 1985. It is built from two parts: the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index.

The Present Situation Index reflects how consumers judge current business conditions and the job market. The Expectations Index reflects their short-term outlook for income, business conditions and jobs.

The survey runs on an online sample, conducted for The Conference Board by Toluna. The figure for the month is first published as a preliminary result, with a cutoff a few days before the release.

Why US consumer confidence moves the dollar

Consumer spending is the largest part of US GDP, so the mood of households is read as a pointer for growth.

Inside the report, traders watch the gap between consumers who say jobs are plentiful and those who say jobs are hard to get. The Conference Board calls it the labor market differential, and the market reads it as an early hint for the jobs report.

The report also asks consumers what inflation they expect over the next 12 months. The market reads that alongside the inflation questions in the Michigan survey.

How to read consumer confidence against the forecast

Compare the headline with the forecast first, then look at which half moved. A fall driven by the Expectations Index says more about the months ahead than one driven by the present situation.

Confidence and actual spending do not always move together. People can say they feel worse and keep spending, so a single weak reading is usually treated with caution until spending or jobs data back it up.

Each month's figure is first published as a preliminary result. The number for the month before can therefore be updated in the next release, so measure the change against the updated figure.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	USD vs basket
29 Sept 2026	16:00	29 Sept to 30 Sept	-0.03%

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about US consumer confidence

What time is US consumer confidence released?

At 10:00 in the morning New York time on the last Tuesday of the month. That is 16:00 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 15:00 in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What is the difference between the Conference Board and the Michigan survey?

They are separate surveys of US consumers with different questions and samples. The Conference Board index leans more on jobs and business conditions. The Michigan index leans more on personal finances and buying conditions, and it also tracks long-run inflation expectations.

What does 1985 = 100 mean?

The index is scaled so that its level in 1985 equals 100. A reading below 100 means consumers are less confident than they were then, and above 100 more confident.

Does consumer confidence move the dollar?

Sometimes, mostly when it misses the forecast by a wide margin or when the jobs questions shift. It counts as a medium-impact release, because hard data on spending and jobs usually matter more.

Sources

The Conference Board, US Consumer Confidence