Michigan consumer sentiment: the University of Michigan survey and the dollar

Michigan consumer sentiment is the monthly index from the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers that measures how American households feel about their finances, the economy and buying conditions. It comes out twice a month, as a preliminary and a final reading, and the inflation expectations inside it can move the dollar as much as the index itself.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Michigan consumer sentiment in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: University of Michigan, Surveys of Consumers
When: Twice a month, usually on a Friday, at 10:00 in the morning New York time: a preliminary reading early to mid-month and a final reading two weeks later. That is 16:00 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 15:00 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: The Index of Consumer Sentiment, against the forecast
Also watched: Year-ahead and long-run inflation expectations
Two readings: Preliminary from about 420 interviews, final from about 1,000
Built from: Five questions on personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions

What is in Michigan consumer sentiment

The Surveys of Consumers are run by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan and date back to 1946. Each month's survey has about 50 core questions on personal finances, business conditions and buying conditions.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment is built from five of those questions. Two ask about personal finances, two about business conditions over one and five years, and one asks whether now is a good time to buy major household items.

The same answers are split into the Index of Current Economic Conditions and the Index of Consumer Expectations. The report also gives the inflation rate households expect over the next year and over the long run.

Why Michigan consumer sentiment moves the dollar

Consumer spending is the largest part of the US economy, so a sharp change in mood is read as a hint for future spending. The survey's expectations measures are part of leading indicators for the US, among them the OECD's.

The inflation expectations matter most for the Fed. Households that expect higher inflation may ask for higher wages and accept higher prices, which is the spiral a central bank wants to avoid.

A jump in the year-ahead or long-run figure can therefore lift US yields and the dollar, even when the headline index is close to the forecast.

How to read the Michigan survey against the forecast

The preliminary reading rests on a smaller sample, around 420 interviews, and the final on about 1,000. The preliminary release usually moves the market more, because it is new; the final moves it mainly when the revision is large.

Read the headline against the forecast, then the inflation expectations against the month before. A change of a few tenths in long-run expectations can matter more than a few points on the index.

In 2024 the survey moved from phone interviews to web interviews. Keep that in mind before setting today's levels against those of many years ago.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first Michigan consumer sentiment after that date will show here with the US dollar's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Michigan consumer sentiment

What time is Michigan consumer sentiment released?

At 10:00 in the morning New York time, usually on a Friday. That is 16:00 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 15:00 in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What is the difference between the preliminary and the final reading?

The preliminary reading comes early to mid-month and is based on about 420 interviews. The final follows two weeks later, based on about 1,000 interviews, and can differ from the first.

Why do traders watch Michigan inflation expectations?

Because the Fed wants households to keep expecting low and stable inflation. A rise in the year-ahead or long-run figure suggests that is slipping, which can push the market toward a firmer Fed.

Is Michigan sentiment the same as Conference Board consumer confidence?

No. They are separate surveys with different questions. Michigan leans more on personal finances and buying conditions and adds inflation expectations, while the Conference Board leans more on jobs and business conditions.