US flash PMI: the S&P Global early survey and how it moves the dollar

The US flash PMI is S&P Global's early estimate of business activity in American manufacturing and services, published while the month it covers is still running. It gives a first read on growth and prices for that month, so a reading far from the forecast can move the dollar and US yields.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

US flash PMI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: S&P Global
When: Monthly, while the month is still running, usually in its third or fourth week, at 9:45 in the morning New York time. That is 15:45 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 14:45 in the few weeks when the US and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: US dollar (USD)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: The flash Composite PMI Output Index, against the forecast and against 50
Survey panel: Around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers
Based on: About 80 to 90% of the month's responses; the final figures follow early the next month
Covers: The current month, while it is still running

What is in the US flash PMI

S&P Global sends questionnaires to panels of around 650 manufacturers and 500 service providers. Answers are collected in the second half of the month, and the flash figure uses about 80 to 90% of them.

The headline is the Composite PMI Output Index, a weighted average of manufacturing output and services business activity. Next to it come the Manufacturing PMI and the Services Business Activity Index.

The final figures follow at the start of the next month, manufacturing first and services and the composite a few days later. S&P Global reports that flash and final figures have differed little on average since the flash began.

Why the US flash PMI moves the dollar

A reading above 50 means activity rose from the month before, and below 50 that it fell. Because it covers the current month, it arrives weeks before most official data for that month.

The survey also asks about input prices and the prices firms charge. When those move sharply, the market reads it as a hint for inflation, and through that for the Fed.

It counts as a medium-impact release. On its own it rarely changes the view on the Fed, but a large surprise on a quiet day can set the tone for the rest of the session.

How to read the flash PMI against the forecast

Start with the composite against the forecast and against 50. Then look at which side drove it, because services carry far more weight in the composite than manufacturing.

Do not set the S&P Global numbers directly against ISM. The manufacturing PMIs use different weights, and the services headlines come from different questions, so the two surveys can disagree in the same month.

Read the price questions next. On days when inflation is the market's main worry, they can matter more than the activity figures.

What the US dollar did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first US flash PMI after that date will show here with the US dollar's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about US flash PMI

What time is the US flash PMI released?

At 9:45 in the morning New York time, usually in the third or fourth week of the month. That is 15:45 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 14:45 in the weeks when the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What is the difference between the flash and the final PMI?

The flash uses about 80 to 90% of the month's survey responses and comes out before the month ends. The final uses all of them and follows at the start of the next month. S&P Global reports that the two have differed little on average.

Is the S&P Global PMI the same as the ISM PMI?

No. They are separate surveys with their own panels and methods. S&P Global gives new orders the biggest weight in its manufacturing PMI, while ISM weights its five parts equally.

Which number is the headline of the US flash PMI?

The Composite PMI Output Index, which combines manufacturing output and services business activity. The Manufacturing PMI and the Services Business Activity Index come out with it.