UK PMI: the S&P Global business surveys and how they move the pound

The UK PMI is a monthly survey of purchasing managers at British manufacturers and service firms, run by S&P Global. It comes out before the comparable official data, so the flash figure is the market's first look at how the UK economy did in a month, and a miss against the forecast can move the pound that morning.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

UK PMI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: S&P Global
When: Monthly, at 9:30 in the morning UK time, which is 10:30 in Amsterdam all year round. The flash survey comes late in the month. The final manufacturing figure follows on the first working day of the next month, and the final services and composite figures on the third working day.
Currency: British pound (GBP)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: The flash composite output index, then the services and manufacturing figures
The 50 line: Above 50 means activity grew on the month before; below 50 means it shrank
Based on: Panels of around 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers
Central bank that watches it: The Bank of England, whose minutes quote the composite output PMI

What is in the UK PMI

S&P Global asks panels of around 650 manufacturers and 650 service providers whether output, new orders, employment, prices and more were higher, the same or lower than a month before. Responses are collected in the second half of each month.

Each question becomes an index between 0 and 100. A reading above 50 means that, on balance, firms reported an increase; below 50 means a decrease.

The headline is the composite output index, a weighted average of manufacturing output and services business activity. The manufacturing PMI is a separate figure built from five indices, and S&P Global says it is not comparable with the composite.

The services panel covers consumer services other than retail, along with transport, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services.

Why the UK PMI moves the pound

The flash survey is the first read on the month, weeks before the official GDP figure. Services carry more weight than manufacturing in the composite, because the weights follow each sector's share of the economy.

The Bank of England quotes the composite output PMI in its minutes. The survey also asks about input costs and the prices firms charge, which traders read as an early sign of where inflation is heading.

How to read the UK PMI against the forecast

The flash release moves the pound most, because it is new. S&P Global builds it from around 80 to 90% of all responses, and on average the final figure has differed from the flash by less than one point.

Read the direction and the distance from 50 together. A drop from the mid 50s to the low 50s is still growth, only slower. A move from just above 50 to just below it signals contraction and tends to draw more attention.

The UK flash usually comes half an hour after the eurozone flash on the same morning. A surprise in Europe can set the tone for the pound before the UK figure is out.

What the British pound did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the British pound against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	GBP vs basket
1 Oct 2026	10:30	1 Oct to 2 Oct	-0.29%

For scale: on an ordinary day the British pound moves 0.14% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about UK PMI

What time is the UK PMI released?

At 9:30 in the morning UK time, which is 10:30 in Amsterdam all year round. The flash comes late in the month. The final manufacturing figure comes on the first working day of the next month and the final services and composite figures on the third.

What is the difference between the flash and the final UK PMI?

The flash is built from around 80 to 90% of the responses and comes out late in the month. The final adds the rest. On average the two have differed by less than one index point.

What does a UK PMI above 50 mean?

That, on balance, firms reported an increase compared with the month before. Below 50 means activity shrank on balance. The further from 50, the more widely firms reported the same change.

Is the UK PMI official data?

No. It is a private survey run by S&P Global. It is watched because it comes out before the official figures from the Office for National Statistics, and the Bank of England refers to it in its minutes.