UK GDP: the monthly and quarterly growth figures and the pound

UK GDP, gross domestic product, is the value of the goods and services the UK produces, and the Office for National Statistics estimates it every month as well as every quarter. The monthly figure gives the pound a regular read on growth. Weak or strong growth changes how far the market expects the Bank of England to move Bank Rate.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

UK GDP in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Office for National Statistics
When: Monthly, about six weeks after the month it covers, at 7:00 in the morning UK time. The first quarterly estimate usually comes on the same morning as the figure for the last month of the quarter, and the quarterly national accounts follow about three months after the quarter ends. 7:00 in London is 08:00 in Amsterdam all year round.
Currency: British pound (GBP)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Growth on the month, then the three months against the three months before
Covers: The month about six weeks earlier, so the October release holds August
Built from: Output of services, production and construction; the quarterly figures add spending and income
Central bank that watches it: The Bank of England, whose minutes discuss both the monthly and the quarterly figures

What is in the UK GDP release

The monthly estimate measures output: what the services sector, production and construction produced. Services is the largest of the three.

Every quarter brings two more steps. The first quarterly estimate comes about six weeks after the quarter ends and adds the spending and income sides. The quarterly national accounts follow about three months after the quarter and use more data to give a more precise figure.

Our calendar lists the quarterly national accounts as UK GDP (revised). By then most of the quarter is known, so it tends to move the pound less than the first figures.

Why UK GDP moves the pound

Growth tells the Bank of England how much pressure there is in the economy. Strong output can keep inflation pressure alive and makes a cut in Bank Rate less likely. Weak output makes a cut more likely and tends to weigh on the pound.

The Bank's target is inflation, not growth. That is why GDP usually moves the pound less than CPI or the labour market report, and why it matters most when growth is close to zero.

How to read UK GDP against the forecast

The ONS itself warns that monthly growth rates can be volatile. It advises reading them alongside the three month growth rate, which compares the latest three months with the three months before.

The market still reacts to the monthly number first, because that is the figure most forecasts are made for. A large miss on the month that the three month figure does not confirm can fade quickly.

GDP is revised as more data come in. A big revision to an earlier month can matter as much as the new month, so read the revisions too.

What the British pound did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the British pound against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	GBP vs basket
30 Sept 2026	08:00	29 Sept to 30 Sept	+0.21%

For scale: on an ordinary day the British pound moves 0.14% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about UK GDP

What time is UK GDP released?

At 7:00 in the morning UK time, which is 08:00 in Amsterdam all year round. The monthly figure comes about six weeks after the month it covers.

What is the difference between monthly and quarterly UK GDP?

The monthly estimate measures output only. The quarterly estimates balance three approaches, output, spending and income, into an average. That is why quarterly growth can differ a little from what the monthly figures suggest.

What is the UK GDP first quarterly estimate?

It is the first full estimate for a quarter, published about six weeks after the quarter ends, usually on the same morning as the monthly figure for its last month. The quarterly national accounts revise it with more data about three months after the quarter ends.

Does UK GDP move the pound as much as CPI?

Usually less. The Bank of England targets inflation, so CPI and pay data say more about its next decision. GDP matters more when growth is near zero or when the figure is far from the forecast.