What is in UK retail sales
The Retail Sales Index measures what retailers in Great Britain sell, from a sample of about 5,000 businesses. Northern Ireland, the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands are not included.
The ONS publishes values, the money taken, and volumes, the same with price changes taken out. Volumes are the line the market reads, because they show how much people actually bought.
It covers goods only. Spending on services such as holidays, train tickets, insurance and banking is not in it, so it shows only part of household spending.
The index splits sales into food stores, non-food stores, non-store retailing, which is mostly online, and automotive fuel.
Why UK retail sales move the pound
Retail sales give an early sign of how households are spending, weeks before GDP shows it. Strong spending can keep inflation pressure up and makes a cut in Bank Rate less likely, so a figure above the forecast tends to support the pound.
It is a medium impact release. The Bank of England sets rates on inflation, so CPI and pay data move the pound more, and retail sales matter most when they confirm or break a trend those releases have set.
How to read UK retail sales against the forecast
Look at the monthly change in volumes first, then the figure without fuel. Fuel sales move with pump prices and driving, so the line without fuel says more about the rest of the shop floor.
The ONS warns that monthly growth can be volatile and should be read alongside the three month growth rate. Retailers report over four and five week periods, not calendar months, and the timing of holidays and sales events can shift spending between months.
Earlier months are revised. Check the change to last month's figure before reading the new one, because a revision can undo half of a surprise.
What the British pound did on the last release days
Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first UK retail sales after that date will show here with the British pound's move around it.
For scale: on an ordinary day the British pound moves 0.14% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.