UK CPI: what the inflation report is and how it moves the pound

UK CPI, the consumer prices index, is the monthly measure from the Office for National Statistics of how fast the prices British households pay are rising. It is the measure the Bank of England's 2% target is set on, so a figure away from the forecast changes what the market expects from the next rate decision, and the pound moves on it straight away.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

UK CPI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Office for National Statistics
When: Monthly, usually on the second or third Wednesday of the month after the one it covers, at 7:00 in the morning UK time. That is 08:00 in Amsterdam all year round, because the UK and the Netherlands change their clocks on the same days.
Currency: British pound (GBP)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Services CPI and core CPI on the year, next to the headline, against the forecast
Central bank that watches it: The Bank of England, whose 2% target is set on CPI
Covers: The month before, so the September release holds August's prices
Published with: CPIH, the ONS's own lead measure, and the older RPI

What is in the UK CPI report

The ONS bulletin, Consumer price inflation, UK, holds three indices. CPI is the one used for the inflation target. CPIH adds the housing costs of people who own their home and is the ONS's lead measure. RPI is an older index that is still published.

Prices are collected in one week at or near the middle of each month. The figures are published in the month after.

Core CPI leaves out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the parts that swing most with world prices and duties. The bulletin also splits CPI into goods and services, and services inflation is the line the market looks at hardest.

Why UK CPI moves the pound

The Bank of England sets Bank Rate to bring CPI inflation to 2% over the medium term. A figure above the forecast makes a higher path for Bank Rate more likely, UK yields rise and the pound usually follows. A figure below it does the opposite.

Services inflation carries extra weight. It says more about pressure from wages and demand at home than about energy and food prices from abroad, and the Bank's minutes come back to it at meeting after meeting.

When CPI inflation moves more than 1 percentage point away from the 2% target, the Governor writes a letter to the Chancellor. The letter explains why inflation has moved away and what the Bank is doing to bring it back, and it is published.

How to read UK CPI against the forecast

The forecast is priced before 7:00. What moves the pound is the gap between the figure and that forecast, and on UK CPI a tenth of a percentage point on services or core can be enough.

A surprise that comes from energy or food tends to fade sooner than one in services. Services inflation is slower to turn, so a miss there changes the outlook for Bank Rate for longer.

Timing matters too. CPI sometimes lands in the same week as a Bank of England decision, and then it shapes what the market expects from that meeting directly.

What the British pound did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the British pound against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	GBP vs basket
16 Sept 2026	08:00	15 Sept to 16 Sept	+0.01%

For scale: on an ordinary day the British pound moves 0.14% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about UK CPI

What time is UK CPI released?

At 7:00 in the morning UK time, usually on the second or third Wednesday of the month. That is 08:00 in Amsterdam all year round. The figures cover the month before.

What is the difference between CPI, core CPI and CPIH?

Core CPI leaves out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, so it says more about the trend. CPIH adds the housing costs of owner occupiers and is the ONS's lead measure. The Bank of England's target is set on CPI, which is why the market reads CPI first.

Why does UK services inflation matter so much for the pound?

Because it shows how much of UK inflation comes from home, from wages and local demand, rather than from world energy and food prices. The Bank of England discusses it at length in its minutes. A surprise in services moves expectations for Bank Rate more than a surprise in petrol.

What happens if UK inflation is far from the 2% target?

When CPI inflation is more than 1 percentage point above or below 2%, the Governor of the Bank of England writes to the Chancellor. The letter explains why inflation has moved away from the target and what the Bank is doing to bring it back.