What is in the ISM manufacturing PMI
ISM asks a panel of purchasing and supply executives whether things got better, worse or stayed the same compared with the month before. The panel is spread over 18 manufacturing industries, weighted by each industry's share of GDP.
Each question becomes a diffusion index: the share answering higher plus half the share answering unchanged. The headline PMI is the average of five of them with equal weights: new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories.
Supplier deliveries runs the other way round. A reading above 50 means slower deliveries, which ISM notes is typical when demand is strong.
Why the ISM manufacturing PMI moves the dollar
A reading above 50 means manufacturing is generally expanding, and below 50 that it is shrinking. The side of 50 gives the direction, and the distance from 50 shows how strong the move is.
Factories are a smaller part of the US economy than services. The survey still carries weight because it comes out at the very start of the month and turns quickly, so the market reads it as an early signal for growth.
The Prices Index gets its own attention. It shows whether factories are paying more for what they buy, which can feed into inflation further down the line and so into the Fed's thinking.
How to read the ISM PMI against the forecast
What moves the dollar is the gap between the reading and the forecast, and the side of 50 it lands on. A move across 50 changes the direction of the story, not just its size.
Then read new orders, the part that looks furthest ahead, and employment, which gives a rough read on factory hiring before the jobs report.
The answers themselves are never changed after release. Only the seasonal adjustment is updated, usually once a year and by small amounts.
What the US dollar did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | USD vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 16:00 | 1 Oct to 2 Oct | -0.15% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.