What is in the US jobless claims report
An initial claim is filed by someone who has lost a job and asks to be found eligible for unemployment insurance. The headline is the advance, seasonally adjusted count of those claims for the week that ended the Saturday before.
Continuing claims, also called insured unemployment, count people who already have a claim and file for another week of benefits. They run one week behind initial claims and show how hard it is to find a new job.
The report also gives a 4-week moving average and the figures before seasonal adjustment. The Department of Labor calls initial claims a leading indicator of the jobs market, and warns that weekly data are hard to adjust for the season.
Why jobless claims move the dollar
The Fed's mandate includes maximum employment, so a turn in layoffs matters for rates. A run of rising claims makes cuts more likely and tends to weigh on the dollar; falling claims do the opposite.
On most Thursdays the move is small. Claims matter more in the weeks before the monthly jobs report, and in stretches when the market is watching for a turn in the jobs market.
How to read US jobless claims against the forecast
One week says little. Holidays, storms and school breaks move the count, and the seasonal factors do not always catch them, so the 4-week average and the direction over a month or two say more.
A jump that holds for several weeks is the signal. Continuing claims that keep climbing show people taking longer to find work, even when new claims are flat.
The previous week is revised in each release. Compare the new figure with the revised one, not with the number printed a week earlier.
What the US dollar did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the US dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | USD vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 14:30 | 1 Oct to 2 Oct | -0.15% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the US dollar moves 0.23% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.