EUR/USD outlook this week
The EUR/USD outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the ECB's 2.50% against the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, a gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar. The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December and the ECB on Thursday 17 December.
EUR/USD scores -22, strongly bearish: USD leads EUR by 22 points. This macro bias is free every week.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
EUR/USD outlook this week in short
No EUR/USD forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| EUR ECB | USD Fed | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.50% | 3.75 to 4.00% |
| Next decision | Thu 17 Dec | Wed 9 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 13:15 | 19:00 |
| Time, London | 13:15 | 19:00 |
A gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 | 10:00 | Eurozone inflation EUR(out) |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | 13:30 | US jobs report USD(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
EUR/USD on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- -0.53%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- -0.06%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- -0.37%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of EUR/USD over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
EUR/USD macro bias this week
EUR/USD is one of the two pairs that are free every week, with the score, its four parts and the reason on each side, from the same research members read.
EUR/USD: strongly bearish
Free every weekEUR/USD scores -22, strongly bearish: USD leads EUR by 22 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from geopolitics (+8) and fundamentals (+7).
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | -6 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | -7 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | -8 | 20 |
| Price strength | -1 | 5 |
| Score | -22 |
Positive favours EUR, negative favours USD. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- EUR: October flash inflation came in at 4.0% (September 3.8%), mostly on energy, while core held at 2.5%; the ECB held unanimously at 2.50% on October 29 but discussed a hike.
- USD: the reasons for this side are in the app.
A score is the macro behind each side, not a price target. The other free pairs this week are on the weekly forex outlook.
Best time to trade EUR/USD
EUR/USD has one side in Europe and one in North America, so the best time to trade it is usually the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. Both sides' markets are open then, and American data lands at the start of it.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for EUR and USD are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| Tokyo | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| LondonHome of EUR | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New YorkHome of USD | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves EUR/USD
EUR/USD is the Euro against the US dollar, which means it is the European Central Bank (ECB) against the Federal Reserve (Fed) and everything those two banks have to react to.
Euro
European Central Bank (ECB)
- The gap between what the European Central Bank is doing and what the Federal Reserve is doing, more than either one alone.
- Growth in the euro area, and in Germany in particular, read through the purchasing managers' surveys.
- Energy prices, because the bloc imports most of what it burns.
US dollar
Federal Reserve (Fed)
- The Federal Reserve has two jobs at once, so both the inflation figure and the jobs report can take over in the same month.
- It is the currency the world borrows in, which is why it can rise on bad American news when markets turn cautious.
- Rate expectations move it more than the rate itself: what the market thinks the Fed will do next year is the price you are trading.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How EUR/USD is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is EUR minus USD.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with EUR/USD.
All 28 pairsQuestions about EUR/USD this week
What is the EUR/USD outlook this week?
The ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, a gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range. The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has 2 high-impact releases for EUR and USD: Eurozone inflation (Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 London) and US jobs report (Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, EUR/USD was down 0.53% over one trading day, down 0.06% over 5 trading days and down 0.37% over 20. EUR/USD scores -22, strongly bearish: USD leads EUR by 22 points. This macro bias is free every week. This week's four free pairs
When are the next Fed and ECB decisions?
The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves EUR/USD?
The ECB against the Fed, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The euro: driven by the gap between ECB and Fed policy, growth in the euro area and energy prices. The US dollar: the world's main reserve currency. Tends to gain when markets turn cautious.
What is the interest rate differential between the euro and the US dollar?
1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar: the ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, counting the middle of the Fed's range. Holding the US dollar against the euro earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade EUR/USD?
EUR/USD has one side in Europe and one in North America, so the best time to trade it is usually the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. Both sides' markets are open then, and American data lands at the start of it. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a EUR/USD forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record