USD/JPY outlook this week
The USD/JPY outlook this week, 9 to 13 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% against the BoJ's 1.25%, a gap of 2.63 percentage points in favour of the US dollar. The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December and the BoJ on Friday 18 December.
USD/JPY scores +11, bullish: USD leads JPY by 11 points. This macro bias is free every week.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 8 November 2026, 22:36 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
USD/JPY outlook this week in short
No USD/JPY forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| USD Fed | JPY BoJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 3.75 to 4.00% | 1.25% |
| Next decision | Wed 9 Dec | Fri 18 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 19:00 | No fixed time |
| Time, London | 19:00 | No fixed time |
A gap of 2.63 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 9 to 13 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 | 13:30 | US CPI USD |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
USD/JPY on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- -0.08%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- +0.68%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- +0.04%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of USD/JPY over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
USD/JPY macro bias this week
USD/JPY is one of the two pairs that are free every week, with the score, its four parts and the reason on each side, from the same research members read.
USD/JPY: bullish
Free every weekUSD/JPY scores +11, bullish: USD leads JPY by 11 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from fundamentals (+17) and geopolitics (+2), while risk sentiment (-8) works the other way.
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | -8 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | +17 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | +2 | 20 |
| Price strength | 0 | 5 |
| Score | +11 |
Positive favours USD, negative favours JPY. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- USD: Hawkish Fed with about a 77% chance of a December hike, after a jobs report far above forecasts (+165k).
- JPY: Safe haven in a risk-off week, plus wages that rose 4.6% in September; the market expects a BoJ hike in December.
A score is the macro behind each side, not a price target. The other free pairs this week are on the weekly forex outlook.
Best time to trade USD/JPY
USD/JPY has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in North America, so it has two windows half a day apart. The Tokyo session, 00:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Japanese yen: Japanese figures come out around its open. The New York session, 13:00 to 22:00 UTC this week, is home to the US dollar: American data lands at the start of it.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for USD and JPY are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| TokyoHome of JPY | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| London | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New YorkHome of USD | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves USD/JPY
USD/JPY is the US dollar against the Japanese yen, which means it is the Federal Reserve (Fed) against the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and everything those two banks have to react to.
US dollar
Federal Reserve (Fed)
- The Federal Reserve has two jobs at once, so both the inflation figure and the jobs report can take over in the same month.
- It is the currency the world borrows in, which is why it can rise on bad American news when markets turn cautious.
- Rate expectations move it more than the rate itself: what the market thinks the Fed will do next year is the price you are trading.
Japanese yen
Bank of Japan (BoJ)
- The interest rate gap with the rest of the world. Japan has had one of the lowest rates of the eight for years, which makes the yen a funding currency of choice.
- Risk appetite. When markets get nervous, Japanese money comes home and the yen rises on the flow rather than on any Japanese news.
- The Ministry of Finance. Japan has intervened in the currency before and says so openly when it is uncomfortable.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
USD/JPY has a safe haven on both sides, so in a sell-off the winner depends on where the shock started. How the franc, the yen and the dollar held up on the worst days for stocks from January 2024 to September 2026 is measured on the safe haven currencies page.
How USD/JPY is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is USD minus JPY.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with USD/JPY.
All 28 pairsQuestions about USD/JPY this week
What is the USD/JPY outlook this week?
The Fed's policy rate is 3.75 to 4.00% and the BoJ's 1.25%, a gap of 2.63 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range. The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London), and the BoJ on Friday 18 December 2026, at no fixed time. The calendar for 9 to 13 November 2026 has one high-impact release for USD and JPY: US CPI (Tue 10 Nov, 13:30 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, USD/JPY was down 0.08% over one trading day, up 0.68% over 5 trading days and up 0.04% over 20. USD/JPY scores +11, bullish: USD leads JPY by 11 points. This macro bias is free every week. This week's four free pairs
When are the next Fed and BoJ decisions?
The Fed decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London), and the BoJ on Friday 18 December 2026, at no fixed time. The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves USD/JPY?
The Fed against the BoJ, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The US dollar: the world's main reserve currency. Tends to gain when markets turn cautious. The Japanese yen: a safe haven that tends to gain when markets turn cautious, and a common funding currency in calm ones.
What is the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Japanese yen?
2.63 percentage points in favour of the US dollar: the Fed's policy rate is 3.75 to 4.00% and the BoJ's 1.25%, counting the middle of the Fed's range. Holding the US dollar against the Japanese yen earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade USD/JPY?
USD/JPY has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in North America, so it has two windows half a day apart. The Tokyo session, 00:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Japanese yen: Japanese figures come out around its open. The New York session, 13:00 to 22:00 UTC this week, is home to the US dollar: American data lands at the start of it. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a USD/JPY forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record