NZD/USD outlook this week
The NZD/USD outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the RBNZ's 2.75% against the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, a gap of 1.13 percentage points in favour of the US dollar. The RBNZ and the Fed both decide next on Wednesday 9 December.
This week's macro bias for NZD/USD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
NZD/USD outlook this week in short
No NZD/USD forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and for members the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| NZD RBNZ | USD Fed | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.75% | 3.75 to 4.00% |
| Next decision | Wed 9 Dec | Wed 9 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 01:00 | 19:00 |
| Time, London | 01:00 | 19:00 |
A gap of 1.13 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 | 21:45 | New Zealand labour market NZD(out) |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | 13:30 | US jobs report USD(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
NZD/USD on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- -1.39%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- -1.64%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- -1.26%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of NZD/USD over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
NZD/USD macro bias this week
For members
This week's macro bias for NZD/USD is for members.
A free account shows four pairs in full, with the score, its four parts and the reason on each side: EUR/USD and USD/JPY every week, and USD/CAD and GBP/JPY this week. NZD/USD comes round as a pair of the week from 9 November 2026. Premium shows all 28 pairs every morning.
Best time to trade NZD/USD
NZD/USD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in North America, so it has two windows half a day apart. The Sydney session, 22:00 to 06:00 UTC this week, is home to the New Zealand dollar: New Zealand figures come out around its open. The New York session, 13:00 to 22:00 UTC this week, is home to the US dollar: American data lands at the start of it.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for NZD and USD are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| SydneyHome of NZD | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| Tokyo | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| London | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New YorkHome of USD | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves NZD/USD
NZD/USD is the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar, which means it is the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) against the Federal Reserve (Fed) and everything those two banks have to react to.
New Zealand dollar
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
- Risk appetite, for the same reasons as the Australian dollar, usually a little more violently.
- Dairy prices, New Zealand's largest export, and the auctions that set them.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has moved earlier and harder than most of the others in past cycles.
US dollar
Federal Reserve (Fed)
- The Federal Reserve has two jobs at once, so both the inflation figure and the jobs report can take over in the same month.
- It is the currency the world borrows in, which is why it can rise on bad American news when markets turn cautious.
- Rate expectations move it more than the rate itself: what the market thinks the Fed will do next year is the price you are trading.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How NZD/USD is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is NZD minus USD.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with NZD/USD.
All 28 pairsQuestions about NZD/USD this week
What is the NZD/USD outlook this week?
The RBNZ's policy rate is 2.75% and the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, a gap of 1.13 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range. The RBNZ decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 01:00 UTC (01:00 in London), and the Fed the same day at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London). The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has 2 high-impact releases for NZD and USD: New Zealand labour market (Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 London) and US jobs report (Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, NZD/USD was down 1.39% over one trading day, down 1.64% over 5 trading days and down 1.26% over 20. This week's macro bias for NZD/USD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full. This week's four free pairs
When are the next RBNZ and Fed decisions?
The RBNZ decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 01:00 UTC (01:00 in London), and the Fed the same day at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London). The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves NZD/USD?
The RBNZ against the Fed, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The New Zealand dollar: tied to risk appetite and to what New Zealand exports, dairy first. The US dollar: the world's main reserve currency. Tends to gain when markets turn cautious.
What is the interest rate differential between the New Zealand dollar and the US dollar?
1.13 percentage points in favour of the US dollar: the RBNZ's policy rate is 2.75% and the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00%, counting the middle of the Fed's range. Holding the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade NZD/USD?
NZD/USD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in North America, so it has two windows half a day apart. The Sydney session, 22:00 to 06:00 UTC this week, is home to the New Zealand dollar: New Zealand figures come out around its open. The New York session, 13:00 to 22:00 UTC this week, is home to the US dollar: American data lands at the start of it. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a NZD/USD forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record