Weekly forex outlook: EUR/USD, USD/JPY and the pairs of the week
This weekly forex outlook scores four of the 28 major pairs in the open: EUR/USD and USD/JPY every week, and GBP/USD and AUD/JPY as the pairs of the week until Monday 26 October.
EUR/USD scores -15, bearish: USD leads EUR by 15 points. USD/JPY scores +18, strongly bullish: USD leads JPY by 18 points.
By Mike, MacroSetup. Scores as of Wed Oct 21, 2026, 9:10pm, refreshed every trading day.
The weekly forex outlook in short
A pair's score is its first currency's macro score minus the second's, so a positive score favours the first currency. Some call this a weekly forex forecast; it is a bias for the week, with no price target.
EUR/USD: bearish
Every weekEUR/USD scores -15, bearish: USD leads EUR by 15 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from geopolitics (+8) and fundamentals (+5).
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | -1 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | -5 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | -8 | 20 |
| Price strength | -1 | 5 |
| Score | -15 |
Positive favours EUR, negative favours USD. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- EUR: Inflation was confirmed at 3.8%, but Lagarde said the bond sell-off weighs on growth more than projected.
- USD: The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and inflation of 3.7% keeps the highest rate level of the eight in place.
High-impact releases this week
None for EUR or USD this week.
USD/JPY: strongly bullish
Every weekUSD/JPY scores +18, strongly bullish: USD leads JPY by 18 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from fundamentals (+13) and risk sentiment (+2).
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | +2 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | +13 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | +2 | 20 |
| Price strength | +1 | 5 |
| Score | +18 |
Positive favours USD, negative favours JPY. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- USD: The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and inflation of 3.7% keeps the highest rate level of the eight in place.
- JPY: The BoJ raised on a 7-2 vote and Tokyo inflation is accelerating, but the market sees the next step in December rather than October and the yen stays vulnerable.
High-impact releases this week
- JPYJapan CPIFri 23 Oct, 00:30 London
GBP/USD: bearish
Pair of the weekGBP/USD scores -10, bearish: USD leads GBP by 10 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from fundamentals (+6) and geopolitics (+5), while price strength (-1) works the other way.
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | 0 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | -6 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | -5 | 20 |
| Price strength | +1 | 5 |
| Score | -10 |
Positive favours GBP, negative favours USD. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- GBP: UK inflation came in at 3.5% in September against 3.4% expected, driven by motor fuels, and unemployment of 4.7% supports a Bank of England hike on November 5.
- USD: The Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on September 16 and inflation of 3.7% keeps the highest rate level of the eight in place.
High-impact releases this week
- GBPUK labour marketTue 20 Oct, 07:00 London, out
- GBPUK CPIWed 21 Oct, 07:00 London, out
AUD/JPY: bullish
Pair of the weekAUD/JPY scores +13, bullish: AUD leads JPY by 13 points.
For AUD, most of the gap comes from fundamentals (+5) and price strength (+4).
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | +3 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | +5 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | +1 | 20 |
| Price strength | +4 | 5 |
| Score | +13 |
Positive favours AUD, negative favours JPY. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- AUD: The RBA hiked to 4.60% on September 29 and RBA official Kent called financial conditions 'somewhat restrictive' on Monday, but jobs fell by 39,300 in September.
- JPY: The BoJ raised on a 7-2 vote and Tokyo inflation is accelerating, but the market sees the next step in December rather than October and the yen stays vulnerable.
High-impact releases this week
- JPYJapan CPIFri 23 Oct, 00:30 London
The next rate decisions for these pairs
- USD FedWed 28 Oct
- EUR ECBThu 29 Oct
- JPY BoJFri 30 Oct
- AUD RBATue 3 Nov
- GBP BoEThu 5 Nov
Dates from each bank's own calendar. Every release of the week, with its time in your own zone, is on the economic calendar, and every bank's rate and target on the central banks page.
The other 24 pairs
Scored every morning for members, with the day's top setups and the ranking of the eight currencies behind them.
- EUR/GBP
- EUR/AUD
- EUR/NZD
- EUR/CAD
- EUR/CHF
- EUR/JPY
- GBP/AUD
- GBP/NZD
- GBP/CAD
- GBP/CHF
- GBP/JPY
- AUD/NZD
- AUD/USD
- AUD/CAD
- AUD/CHF
- NZD/USD
- NZD/CAD
- NZD/CHF
- NZD/JPY
- USD/CAD
- USD/CHF
- CAD/CHF
- CAD/JPY
- CHF/JPY
How the pairs of the week are chosen
By a fixed schedule, never by score. The other 26 pairs come round two at a time, and the two of a week never share a currency, so each pair is here once every 13 weeks. A pair of the week is its turn, not a pick.
EUR/USD and USD/JPY stay every week because they are the two most traded pairs in the world, according to the BIS survey of April 2025.
Each score has four parts: risk sentiment (up to 40 points), fundamentals (35), geopolitics (20) and this week's price strength (5). How they are read is on the methodology page, and how every setup did, misses included, on the track record.
| From Monday | Pairs of the week |
|---|---|
| Mon 19 Oct | GBP/USD and AUD/JPY (this week) |
| Mon 26 Oct | AUD/USD and EUR/GBP |
| Mon 2 Nov | USD/CAD and GBP/JPY |
| Mon 9 Nov | NZD/USD and EUR/CHF |
| Mon 16 Nov | USD/CHF and EUR/AUD |
Questions about the weekly outlook
What is the weekly forex outlook?
A free page with this week's macro bias for four of the 28 major pairs: EUR/USD and USD/JPY every week, and two pairs of the week that change every Monday. Each pair gets its score, the four parts it is built from and the reason on each side, from the same research members read.
How are the pairs of the week chosen?
By a fixed schedule, never by score. The other 26 pairs come round two at a time, so each one is on this page once every 13 weeks. A pair of the week is not a pick or a recommendation; it is simply its turn.
Is this a weekly forex forecast?
Not of the price. The score says which currency the macro is behind this week and by how much, with no target, no entry and no stop. Everyone sees the same research, and none of it is personal advice. What a fundamental bias is
How often is it updated?
The research is rewritten every trading morning around 08:00 Amsterdam time and checked every hour on trading days, and this page picks up a new version within about a quarter of an hour. The pairs of the week change on Monday at midnight, Amsterdam time.
Where are the other 24 pairs?
In the app, for members: all 28 pairs every morning, today's top setups, the ranking of the eight currencies with the reasons behind it, and the updates through the day. A Free account keeps these four pairs, the calendar and the central banks; the rest opens with 14 days free and a card. The plan and the free days