EUR/NZD outlook this week
The EUR/NZD outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the ECB's 2.50% against the RBNZ's 2.75%, a gap of 0.25 percentage points in favour of the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ decides next on Wednesday 9 December and the ECB on Thursday 17 December.
This week's macro bias for EUR/NZD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
EUR/NZD outlook this week in short
No EUR/NZD forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and for members the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| EUR ECB | NZD RBNZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.50% | 2.75% |
| Next decision | Thu 17 Dec | Wed 9 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 13:15 | 01:00 |
| Time, London | 13:15 | 01:00 |
A gap of 0.25 percentage points in favour of the New Zealand dollar.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 | 21:45 | New Zealand labour market NZD(out) |
| Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 | 10:00 | Eurozone inflation EUR(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
EUR/NZD on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- +0.88%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- +1.60%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- +0.90%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of EUR/NZD over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
EUR/NZD macro bias this week
For members
This week's macro bias for EUR/NZD is for members.
A free account shows four pairs in full, with the score, its four parts and the reason on each side: EUR/USD and USD/JPY every week, and USD/CAD and GBP/JPY this week. EUR/NZD comes round as a pair of the week from 21 December 2026. Premium shows all 28 pairs every morning.
Best time to trade EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Sydney session, 22:00 to 06:00 UTC this week, is home to the New Zealand dollar: New Zealand figures come out around its open. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the euro: euro area figures come out in the European morning.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for EUR and NZD are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| SydneyHome of NZD | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| Tokyo | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| LondonHome of EUR | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New York | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves EUR/NZD
EUR/NZD is the Euro against the New Zealand dollar, which means it is the European Central Bank (ECB) against the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and everything those two banks have to react to.
Euro
European Central Bank (ECB)
- The gap between what the European Central Bank is doing and what the Federal Reserve is doing, more than either one alone.
- Growth in the euro area, and in Germany in particular, read through the purchasing managers' surveys.
- Energy prices, because the bloc imports most of what it burns.
New Zealand dollar
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ)
- Risk appetite, for the same reasons as the Australian dollar, usually a little more violently.
- Dairy prices, New Zealand's largest export, and the auctions that set them.
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand, which has moved earlier and harder than most of the others in past cycles.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How EUR/NZD is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is EUR minus NZD.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with EUR/NZD.
All 28 pairsQuestions about EUR/NZD this week
What is the EUR/NZD outlook this week?
The ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the RBNZ's 2.75%, a gap of 0.25 percentage points in favour of the New Zealand dollar. The RBNZ decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 01:00 UTC (01:00 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has 2 high-impact releases for EUR and NZD: New Zealand labour market (Tue 3 Nov, 21:45 London) and Eurozone inflation (Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, EUR/NZD was up 0.88% over one trading day, up 1.60% over 5 trading days and up 0.90% over 20. This week's macro bias for EUR/NZD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full. This week's four free pairs
When are the next RBNZ and ECB decisions?
The RBNZ decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 01:00 UTC (01:00 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves EUR/NZD?
The ECB against the RBNZ, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The euro: driven by the gap between ECB and Fed policy, growth in the euro area and energy prices. The New Zealand dollar: tied to risk appetite and to what New Zealand exports, dairy first.
What is the interest rate differential between the euro and the New Zealand dollar?
0.25 percentage points in favour of the New Zealand dollar: the ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the RBNZ's 2.75%. Holding the New Zealand dollar against the euro earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade EUR/NZD?
EUR/NZD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Sydney session, 22:00 to 06:00 UTC this week, is home to the New Zealand dollar: New Zealand figures come out around its open. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the euro: euro area figures come out in the European morning. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a EUR/NZD forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record