EUR/AUD outlook this week
The EUR/AUD outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the ECB's 2.50% against the RBA's 4.85%, a gap of 2.35 percentage points in favour of the Australian dollar. The RBA decides next on Tuesday 8 December and the ECB on Thursday 17 December.
This week's macro bias for EUR/AUD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
EUR/AUD outlook this week in short
No EUR/AUD forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and for members the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| EUR ECB | AUD RBA | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.50% | 4.85% |
| Next decision | Thu 17 Dec | Tue 8 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 13:15 | 03:30 |
| Time, London | 13:15 | 03:30 |
A gap of 2.35 percentage points in favour of the Australian dollar.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 | 03:30 | RBA decision AUD(out) |
| Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 | 10:00 | Eurozone inflation EUR(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
EUR/AUD on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- +1.35%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- +2.18%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- +1.23%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of EUR/AUD over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
EUR/AUD macro bias this week
For members
This week's macro bias for EUR/AUD is for members.
A free account shows four pairs in full, with the score, its four parts and the reason on each side: EUR/USD and USD/JPY every week, and USD/CAD and GBP/JPY this week. EUR/AUD comes round as a pair of the week from 16 November 2026. Premium shows all 28 pairs every morning.
Best time to trade EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Sydney and Tokyo sessions, 22:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Australian dollar: Australian figures come out in those hours. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the euro: euro area figures come out in the European morning.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for EUR and AUD are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| SydneyHome of AUD | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| TokyoHome of AUD | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| LondonHome of EUR | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New York | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves EUR/AUD
EUR/AUD is the Euro against the Australian dollar, which means it is the European Central Bank (ECB) against the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and everything those two banks have to react to.
Euro
European Central Bank (ECB)
- The gap between what the European Central Bank is doing and what the Federal Reserve is doing, more than either one alone.
- Growth in the euro area, and in Germany in particular, read through the purchasing managers' surveys.
- Energy prices, because the bloc imports most of what it burns.
Australian dollar
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
- Risk appetite. The Australian dollar is the most cyclical of the eight and falls hardest when markets turn.
- China: its demand for iron ore and its growth numbers arrive as Australian news.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia, which targets a range rather than a single number and watches the labour market closely.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How EUR/AUD is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is EUR minus AUD.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with EUR/AUD.
All 28 pairsQuestions about EUR/AUD this week
What is the EUR/AUD outlook this week?
The ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the RBA's 4.85%, a gap of 2.35 percentage points in favour of the Australian dollar. The RBA decides next on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 03:30 UTC (03:30 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has 2 high-impact events for EUR and AUD: RBA decision (Tue 3 Nov, 03:30 London) and Eurozone inflation (Wed 4 Nov, 10:00 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, EUR/AUD was up 1.35% over one trading day, up 2.18% over 5 trading days and up 1.23% over 20. This week's macro bias for EUR/AUD is for members; a free account shows four other pairs in full. This week's four free pairs
When are the next RBA and ECB decisions?
The RBA decides next on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 03:30 UTC (03:30 in London), and the ECB on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 13:15 UTC (13:15 in London). The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves EUR/AUD?
The ECB against the RBA, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The euro: driven by the gap between ECB and Fed policy, growth in the euro area and energy prices. The Australian dollar: tied to risk appetite and commodities, and to demand from China.
What is the interest rate differential between the euro and the Australian dollar?
2.35 percentage points in favour of the Australian dollar: the ECB's policy rate is 2.50% and the RBA's 4.85%. Holding the Australian dollar against the euro earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade EUR/AUD?
EUR/AUD has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Sydney and Tokyo sessions, 22:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Australian dollar: Australian figures come out in those hours. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the euro: euro area figures come out in the European morning. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a EUR/AUD forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record