AUD/CHF: two economies, one price
AUD/CHF is the Australian dollar against the Swiss franc, which means it is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) against the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and everything those two banks have to react to. Here is where each side stands and what moves it.
The two sides
Australian dollar
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
- Risk appetite. The Australian dollar is the most cyclical of the eight and falls hardest when markets turn.
- China: its demand for iron ore and its growth numbers arrive as Australian news.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia, which targets a range rather than a single number and watches the labour market closely.
Swiss franc
Swiss National Bank (SNB)
- Demand for safety. The franc rises when Europe is nervous, whatever Switzerland itself is doing.
- The Swiss National Bank, which has the lowest rate of the eight and a long history of acting on the currency directly.
- Swiss inflation, which is usually the lowest in the group and gives the bank little to react to.
Which of the two pays the higher rate, and what that gap is worth in points a year, is on the rate differentials page, and the releases due for either currency are on the calendar for this week.
How AUD/CHF is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is AUD minus CHF.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with AUD/CHF.
All 28 pairsQuestions about AUD/CHF
What moves AUD/CHF?
Two central banks against each other, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the releases each of them steers on, the gap between their policy rates, and the mood of the wider market. A move in either currency moves the pair.
Which currency in AUD/CHF pays the carry?
Whichever of the two has the higher policy rate: long that one against the other earns roughly the difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. The gap for every pair is on the rate differentials page. The rate gaps
Do you publish a AUD/CHF forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record
Is AUD/CHF a good pair to trade?
It is worth your attention on the days the two sides disagree, and it is not on the days AUD and CHF score the same. Which of those it is today is exactly what the ranking answers.