USD/CAD outlook this week
The USD/CAD outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the Fed's 3.75 to 4.00% against the BoC's 2.50%, a gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar. The BoC and the Fed both decide next on Wednesday 9 December.
USD/CAD scores +29, strongly bullish: USD leads CAD by 29 points. This macro bias is free this week, until Monday 9 November.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
USD/CAD outlook this week in short
No USD/CAD forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| USD Fed | CAD BoC | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 3.75 to 4.00% | 2.50% |
| Next decision | Wed 9 Dec | Wed 9 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 19:00 | 14:45 |
| Time, London | 19:00 | 14:45 |
A gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | 13:30 | US jobs report USD(out) |
| Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 | 13:30 | Canada jobs report CAD(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
USD/CAD on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- +0.72%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- +0.70%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- -1.12%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of USD/CAD over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
USD/CAD macro bias this week
USD/CAD is one of this week's two pairs of the week, free in full until Monday 9 November: the score, its four parts and the reason on each side, from the same research members read.
USD/CAD: strongly bullish
Free this week, until Mon 9 NovUSD/CAD scores +29, strongly bullish: USD leads CAD by 29 points.
For USD, most of the gap comes from risk sentiment (+11) and fundamentals (+11).
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | +11 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | +11 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | +5 | 20 |
| Price strength | +2 | 5 |
| Score | +29 |
Positive favours USD, negative favours CAD. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- USD: the reasons for this side are in the app.
- CAD: Unemployment rises to 6.7% and employment falls again, despite the BoC hike.
A score is the macro behind each side, not a price target. The other free pairs this week are on the weekly forex outlook.
Best time to trade USD/CAD
Both sides of USD/CAD are North American, so its day is the New York session, 08:00 to 17:00 New York time, which this week is 13:00 to 22:00 UTC. American and Canadian figures often come out at the start of it, sometimes in the same minute.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for USD and CAD are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| Tokyo | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| London | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New YorkHome of USD and CAD | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves USD/CAD
USD/CAD is the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, which means it is the Federal Reserve (Fed) against the Bank of Canada (BoC) and everything those two banks have to react to.
US dollar
Federal Reserve (Fed)
- The Federal Reserve has two jobs at once, so both the inflation figure and the jobs report can take over in the same month.
- It is the currency the world borrows in, which is why it can rise on bad American news when markets turn cautious.
- Rate expectations move it more than the rate itself: what the market thinks the Fed will do next year is the price you are trading.
Canadian dollar
Bank of Canada (BoC)
- The price of oil, one of Canada's largest exports.
- The United States. Most of what Canada sells goes there, so American growth and trade policy land on the Canadian dollar.
- The Bank of Canada, which tends to move in the same direction as the Federal Reserve but not always at the same pace.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How USD/CAD is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is USD minus CAD.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with USD/CAD.
All 28 pairsQuestions about USD/CAD this week
What is the USD/CAD outlook this week?
The Fed's policy rate is 3.75 to 4.00% and the BoC's 2.50%, a gap of 1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar, counting the middle of the Fed's range. The BoC decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 14:45 UTC (14:45 in London), and the Fed the same day at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London). The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has 2 high-impact releases for USD and CAD: US jobs report (Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 London) and Canada jobs report (Fri 6 Nov, 13:30 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, USD/CAD was up 0.72% over one trading day, up 0.70% over 5 trading days and down 1.12% over 20. USD/CAD scores +29, strongly bullish: USD leads CAD by 29 points. This macro bias is free this week, until Monday 9 November. This week's four free pairs
When are the next BoC and Fed decisions?
The BoC decides next on Wednesday 9 December 2026 at 14:45 UTC (14:45 in London), and the Fed the same day at 19:00 UTC (19:00 in London). The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves USD/CAD?
The Fed against the BoC, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The US dollar: the world's main reserve currency. Tends to gain when markets turn cautious. The Canadian dollar: tied to oil prices and to the US economy, its largest trading partner.
What is the interest rate differential between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar?
1.38 percentage points in favour of the US dollar: the Fed's policy rate is 3.75 to 4.00% and the BoC's 2.50%, counting the middle of the Fed's range. Holding the US dollar against the Canadian dollar earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade USD/CAD?
Both sides of USD/CAD are North American, so its day is the New York session, 08:00 to 17:00 New York time, which this week is 13:00 to 22:00 UTC. American and Canadian figures often come out at the start of it, sometimes in the same minute. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a USD/CAD forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record