GBP/JPY outlook this week
The GBP/JPY outlook this week, 2 to 6 November 2026, starts from two policy rates: the BoE's 4.00% against the BoJ's 1.25%, a gap of 2.75 percentage points in favour of the British pound. The BoE decides next on Thursday 17 December and the BoJ on Friday 18 December.
GBP/JPY scores +7, slightly bullish: GBP leads JPY by 7 points. This macro bias is free this week, until Monday 9 November.
By Mike, founder of MacroSetup. Page updated . Rates and calendar as the research last recorded them, 6 November 2026, 21:12 Amsterdam time; price moves on the ECB reference rates, updated once a working day.
GBP/JPY outlook this week in short
No GBP/JPY forecast and no price target here: the facts of the week, dated, and the macro bias, which reads the two economies behind the pair rather than the chart.
| GBP BoE | JPY BoJ | |
|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 4.00% | 1.25% |
| Next decision | Thu 17 Dec | Fri 18 Dec |
| Time, UTC | 12:00 | No fixed time |
| Time, London | 12:00 | No fixed time |
A gap of 2.75 percentage points in favour of the British pound.
Rates as the research last recorded them; dates from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. Every gap between the eight is on the rate differentials page, every meeting on the central banks page.
High-impact releases, 2 to 6 Nov
| London | UTC | Release |
|---|---|---|
| Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 | 12:00 | BoE decision GBP(out) |
High impact only, as on the economic calendar, which has every release of the week for all eight currencies with what is next.
GBP/JPY on the ECB reference rates
Latest: 6 November 2026
- 1 day
- -0.63%
- from 5 Nov
- 5 days
- +0.58%
- from 30 Oct
- 20 days
- +1.29%
- from 9 Oct
The change in the price of GBP/JPY over 1, 5 and 20 trading days, our own calculation from the euro foreign exchange reference rates. Source: ECB statistics. The ECB publishes them once a working day at around 16:00 CET, for information only, so this is a daily reading and not a live price. All eight currencies and all 28 pairs are on the currency strength meter.
GBP/JPY macro bias this week
GBP/JPY is one of this week's two pairs of the week, free in full until Monday 9 November: the score, its four parts and the reason on each side, from the same research members read.
GBP/JPY: slightly bullish
Free this week, until Mon 9 NovGBP/JPY scores +7, slightly bullish: GBP leads JPY by 7 points.
For GBP, most of the gap comes from fundamentals (+11), while geopolitics (-3) and risk sentiment (-1) work the other way.
| Pillar | Points | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Risk sentiment | -1 | 40 |
| Fundamentals | +11 | 35 |
| Geopolitics | -3 | 20 |
| Price strength | 0 | 5 |
| Score | +7 |
Positive favours GBP, negative favours JPY. The parts add up to the score.
Why, per side
- GBP: The BoE hiked to 4.00% on November 5 on an 8-1 vote and expects inflation around 5% by mid-2027; with UK inflation of 3.5% in September that keeps the BoE hawkish, although retail sales fell 0.4% in September.
- JPY: The franc and sterling are doing better than the yen, which has not been behaving like a safe haven in recent weeks; the BoJ held at 1.25% on October 30 (8-1, one member wanted 1.5%) and Tokyo inflation rose to 2.8%, although core slipped to 2.6%.
A score is the macro behind each side, not a price target. The other free pairs this week are on the weekly forex outlook.
Best time to trade GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Tokyo session, 00:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Japanese yen: Japanese figures come out around its open. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the British pound: UK figures come out around its open.
For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC.
In the minutes around a high-impact release spreads widen, and some prop firms forbid trading around it altogether. This week's releases for GBP and JPY are in the table above. More on the sessions: the best time to trade forex and which session is open now.
| Session | Local time | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 09:00 to 17:00 | 22:00 to 06:00 |
| TokyoHome of JPY | 09:00 to 17:00 | 00:00 to 08:00 |
| LondonHome of GBP | 08:00 to 16:30 | 08:00 to 16:30 |
| New York | 08:00 to 17:00 | 13:00 to 22:00 |
Each centre on its own clock, so the hours in UTC move when a centre changes its clocks. Holidays close a centre too: the forex market holidays.
What moves GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY is the British pound against the Japanese yen, which means it is the Bank of England (BoE) against the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and everything those two banks have to react to.
British pound
Bank of England (BoE)
- UK inflation, especially the services part, which is the number the Bank of England keeps pointing at.
- The labour market, wages first.
- Fiscal events. A budget can move the pound as much as a rate decision.
Japanese yen
Bank of Japan (BoJ)
- The interest rate gap with the rest of the world. Japan has had one of the lowest rates of the eight for years, which makes the yen a funding currency of choice.
- Risk appetite. When markets get nervous, Japanese money comes home and the yen rises on the flow rather than on any Japanese news.
- The Ministry of Finance. Japan has intervened in the currency before and says so openly when it is uncomfortable.
The rate gap between any two of the eight is on the rate differentials page, each bank's next meetings on the central banks page, every release of the week on the economic calendar and how the eight moved on price on the currency strength meter.
How GBP/JPY is scored
Each currency gets a score from 0 to 100 from four parts: risk sentiment, the fundamentals of its central bank and rate level, geopolitics and the price of the week. The score of the pair is GBP minus JPY.
A wide gap means the macro is pulling one way. A narrow one means this pair has no macro behind it today, which is a good reason to look at another one. Members see the number, the reason and the event risk on it every morning.
Before you take it
- Check both sides. A release on either currency moves the pair, and the leg nobody checked is the one that hurts.
- Check the rate gap. It pays you every night you hold, or it costs you.
- Check your other positions. Two pairs that share a currency are one bet.
- Then take the entry from your own chart. Macro for the side, the chart for the moment.
Pairs that share a currency
Two positions that share a currency are one position wearing two names. These are the pairs that move with GBP/JPY.
All 28 pairsQuestions about GBP/JPY this week
What is the GBP/JPY outlook this week?
The BoE's policy rate is 4.00% and the BoJ's 1.25%, a gap of 2.75 percentage points in favour of the British pound. The BoE decides next on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC (12:00 in London), and the BoJ on Friday 18 December 2026, at no fixed time. The calendar for 2 to 6 November 2026 has one high-impact event for GBP and JPY: BoE decision (Thu 5 Nov, 12:00 London). On the ECB reference rates of 6 November 2026, GBP/JPY was down 0.63% over one trading day, up 0.58% over 5 trading days and up 1.29% over 20. GBP/JPY scores +7, slightly bullish: GBP leads JPY by 7 points. This macro bias is free this week, until Monday 9 November. This week's four free pairs
When are the next BoE and BoJ decisions?
The BoE decides next on Thursday 17 December 2026 at 12:00 UTC (12:00 in London), and the BoJ on Friday 18 December 2026, at no fixed time. The dates are from each bank's own calendar, checked on 13 October 2026. All eight central banks and their meetings
What moves GBP/JPY?
The BoE against the BoJ, the releases each of them steers by, the gap between their policy rates and the mood of the wider market. The British pound: moves on UK inflation and labour data, and on how far the Bank is willing to go. The Japanese yen: a safe haven that tends to gain when markets turn cautious, and a common funding currency in calm ones.
What is the interest rate differential between the British pound and the Japanese yen?
2.75 percentage points in favour of the British pound: the BoE's policy rate is 4.00% and the BoJ's 1.25%. Holding the British pound against the Japanese yen earns roughly that difference over a year, before your broker's spread on the swap. Every gap between the eight
When is the best time to trade GBP/JPY?
GBP/JPY has one side in the Asia-Pacific day and one in Europe, so it has two windows. The Tokyo session, 00:00 to 08:00 UTC this week, is home to the Japanese yen: Japanese figures come out around its open. The London session, 08:00 to 16:30 UTC this week, is home to the British pound: UK figures come out around its open. For the market as a whole, the busiest stretch of the day is the overlap of London and New York, from the New York open at 08:00 New York time to the London close at 16:30 London time, which this week is 13:00 to 16:30 UTC. The best time to trade forex
Do you publish a GBP/JPY forecast?
No. We score both currencies every trading day and the pair score is the difference between them, with the reason written next to it. That is a reading of now, not a prediction, and the past readings are published with their misses. The track record