Japan industrial production: factory output and the yen

Japan industrial production is the monthly index of what Japan's factories and mines produce, published by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. It comes with the makers' own production plans for the next two months, which makes it an early read on the industrial side of the economy. Its effect on the yen is usually modest unless the figures break sharply from the forecast.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Japan industrial production in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry
When: Monthly, at 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time, near the end of the month after the one covered: the August figures, for example, come out at the end of September. A revised report follows in the middle of the next month at 13:30. In Amsterdam the first release lands at 01:50 for most of the year and at 00:50 in the European winter, from late October to late March.
Currency: Japanese yen (JPY)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Production, seasonally adjusted, on the month
Covers: Mining and manufacturing: production, shipments, inventories and the inventory ratio
Comes with: The Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing, for the current and the next month
Often listed with: Japan retail sales, also from the same ministry and usually on the same morning

What is in Japan industrial production

The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry compiles indices of production, shipments and inventories for mining and manufacturing, plus the inventory ratio, which sets stocks against shipments. The indices are set to 100 in a base year and published with and without seasonal adjustment.

The release names the industries that pushed the index up or down, such as motor vehicles, machinery or electronic parts.

With it comes the Survey of Production Forecast in Manufacturing. Makers report how much they plan to produce in the current month and the next one, which gives the release a look ahead.

Why industrial production matters for the yen

Factory output reacts quickly to demand at home and abroad, and to supply problems such as shortages of parts. A run of weak months points to softer growth, which makes the Bank of Japan less likely to hurry.

The effect on the yen is usually small, because inflation, wages and the BoJ matter more for rates. The release counts most in a quiet week, or when the forecast survey turns sharply.

How to read industrial production against the forecast

Compare the change in production on the month with the forecast. Then read the makers' plans for the next two months: a weak month with strong plans is read differently from a weak month with weak plans.

Watch the inventory ratio as well. Rising stocks against falling shipments often come before cuts in output.

The first figures are revised about two weeks later, at 13:30 Tokyo time, so the first read is not the last word.

What the Japanese yen did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Japanese yen against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	JPY vs basket
30 Sept 2026	01:50	29 Sept to 30 Sept	+0.28%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Japan industrial production

What time is Japan industrial production released?

At 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time, near the end of the month after the one it covers. In Amsterdam that is 01:50 for most of the year and 00:50 in the European winter.

What is the production forecast survey?

It is a monthly survey in which manufacturers report how much they plan to produce in the current and the next month. The ministry publishes it with the industrial production figures, and it gives a first look at the coming months.

Why is it listed together with retail sales?

Both come from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and usually come out on the same morning, so many calendars list them as one event. This page covers the production side.

Does Japan industrial production move the yen?

Usually only a little, unless the surprise is large or the forecast survey turns hard. The yen reacts more to inflation, wages, the Bank of Japan and US yields.