Japan machinery orders: an early signal for business investment

Japan machinery orders is the Cabinet Office's monthly count of the orders that Japan's main machinery makers receive, and one of the early signals for business investment. It rarely sets the yen's direction on its own, but a large surprise in core orders can shift views on growth and, at the margin, on the Bank of Japan.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Japan machinery orders in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Cabinet Office, Economic and Social Research Institute
When: Monthly, at 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time, in the middle of the second month after the month covered: the August figures, for example, come out in mid-October. In Amsterdam that is 01:50 for most of the year and 00:50 in the European winter, from late October to late March.
Currency: Japanese yen (JPY)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Core orders: private sector, without ships and orders from power companies, on the month
Covers: 280 manufacturers in the main machinery sectors
Comes with: A forecast for the next quarter, in the March, June, September and December reports

What is in Japan machinery orders

The Economic and Social Research Institute surveys 280 manufacturers in the main machinery sectors, chosen to cover more than 80% of the sector. They report the orders they received, from engines, turbines and electrical equipment to machine tools, rolling stock, aircraft and ships.

The orders are split by who placed them, with private-sector orders broken down further by industry.

The line the market reads is private-sector orders without ships and without orders from electric power companies. The Cabinet Office leaves those out because the amounts are large and erratic and take a long time to build, so they say little about the direction of investment over the next two or three quarters.

Why machinery orders matter for the yen

Orders come before the spending: a firm orders equipment, and the investment follows as the machines are built and delivered. That makes core orders one of the early signs of where business investment is going.

Business investment is one of the forces the Bank of Japan counts on to keep growth going. Weak orders over several months weaken that story, and with it the case for higher rates.

On its own the release rarely moves the yen much. It matters more when it confirms or contradicts a theme the market is already trading.

How to read machinery orders against the forecast

Core orders swing a lot from month to month, so a big rise or fall is often partly reversed the next time. Compare the figure with the forecast, then look at the trend over three months.

Once a quarter the report also holds the manufacturers' own forecast for the next quarter, with a record of how close past forecasts came. That is the part of the release that looks furthest ahead.

What the Japanese yen did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Japanese yen against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	JPY vs basket
16 Sept 2026	01:50	15 Sept to 16 Sept	+0.01%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Japan machinery orders

What time are Japan machinery orders released?

At 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time, in the middle of the second month after the month covered. In Amsterdam that is 01:50 for most of the year and 00:50 in the European winter.

What are core machinery orders?

Private-sector orders without ships and without orders from electric power companies. Those are left out because they are large, irregular and slow to build, which would hide the trend in business investment.

Why are machinery orders so volatile?

A few large orders can swing a month's total, because big projects are ordered in one go. That is why the market looks at the trend over three months and at the quarterly forecast.

Do machinery orders move the yen?

Usually only a little. A large surprise can shift views on Japanese growth, but the yen reacts more to inflation, wages and the Bank of Japan.