What is in the Tankan survey
The Bank of Japan asks firms to judge their business conditions, mainly in the light of their profits, as favourable, not so favourable or unfavourable. The diffusion index is the share answering favourable minus the share answering unfavourable, in percentage points.
Firms are grouped by capital. Large firms have 1 billion yen or more, medium-sized firms 100 million to 1 billion, and small firms 20 million to 100 million, and each group is split into manufacturers and non-manufacturers.
Next to the judgement on today, firms give a view for three months ahead. The survey also holds yearly plans for sales, profits and fixed investment, the exchange rates firms assume against the dollar and the euro, and their outlook for their own prices and for prices in general.
Why the Tankan survey moves the yen
The Tankan is run by the central bank to support its monetary policy. A clear rise in business conditions or in firms' price plans makes a further BoJ step easier to justify, and a clear fall makes it harder.
Large manufacturers are read first, by long habit and because they are closely tied to exports and the yen. A weak reading there often points to trouble abroad as much as at home.
The firms' outlook for general prices adds a read on inflation expectations, a theme the BoJ's own statements keep coming back to.
How to read the Tankan against the forecast
The market has a forecast for the large manufacturers index, and the distance from it is what moves the yen first. Then compare it with the last survey, because the change says more than the level.
Read the view for three months ahead next. When firms expect conditions to worsen while today's reading holds up, the mood is starting to turn.
The large non-manufacturers index covers retail, transport, services and other firms that sell mainly at home, and gives the domestic side of the picture. The exchange rates firms assume in their plans show where companies expect the yen to be.
What the Japanese yen did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the Japanese yen against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | JPY vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 01:50 | 30 Sept to 1 Oct | -0.55% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.