Japan GDP: the quarterly growth figures and the yen

Japan GDP is the Cabinet Office's quarterly estimate of the size of the Japanese economy, published first as a preliminary figure about a month and a half after the quarter ends. It usually moves the yen less than inflation and wage data, but a clear surprise changes how much room the market thinks the Bank of Japan has to raise rates.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Japan GDP in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Cabinet Office, Economic and Social Research Institute
When: Twice for each quarter, at 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time. The first preliminary estimate comes about a month and a half after the quarter ends, in mid-February, May, August and November, and the second preliminary estimate about three weeks later. In Amsterdam that is 01:50 in the European summer and 00:50 in the winter.
Currency: Japanese yen (JPY)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Real GDP on the quarter, seasonally adjusted, and the same as an annualized rate
Estimates: A first preliminary estimate, then a second one about three weeks later
Covers: The quarter before, so the mid-November release holds July to September
Central bank that watches it: The Bank of Japan, in its quarterly Outlook Report

What is in Japan GDP

The Economic and Social Research Institute of the Cabinet Office estimates GDP from the spending side: private consumption, housing, business investment, government spending, inventories and net exports. Each part is shown as a change on the quarter and as its contribution to the change in GDP.

The headline is real GDP, adjusted for prices and for the season, as a change on the previous quarter. Japan also publishes it as an annualized rate, the growth the economy would have over a year if that quarter's pace repeated four times.

The release also holds the GDP deflator, a broad measure of prices, and the pay of employees in real terms.

Why Japan GDP moves the yen

Growth decides how much room the Bank of Japan has to raise rates. A strong quarter supports the case for the next step, and a weak one argues for waiting.

Private consumption is read closely, because the BoJ wants to see higher wages turning into spending. Business investment shows whether firms are putting their profits to work.

How to read Japan GDP against the forecast

Compare the annualized rate with the forecast, but remember that it is roughly four times the quarterly change. A gap that looks large on the annualized figure can be a tenth or two on the quarter.

Look at what drove the number. Growth that comes from inventories, or from imports falling, says less than growth from consumption and investment, and the market usually treats it that way.

The second estimate can change the picture. It adds the Ministry of Finance's quarterly survey of company accounts, which mainly revises business investment and inventories. By the Cabinet Office's own count, the annualized rate has moved by about three quarters of a percentage point on average between the two estimates since 2010.

What the Japanese yen did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first Japan GDP after that date will show here with the Japanese yen's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Japan GDP

What time is Japan GDP released?

At 8:50 in the morning Tokyo time. In Amsterdam that is 01:50 for the May, June, August and September releases and 00:50 for those in November, December, February and March.

What is the annualized GDP rate in Japan?

It is the quarterly change in real GDP turned into a yearly pace, as if the same growth repeated for four quarters. It makes Japan's figures look larger than a plain quarterly change, so compare like with like.

What is the difference between the first and second GDP estimate?

The first preliminary estimate uses the data available about a month and a half after the quarter. The second, about three weeks later, adds the Ministry of Finance's survey of company accounts, which mainly revises business investment and inventories.

Does a strong Japan GDP make the yen go up?

Often, when it beats the forecast and the strength is in consumption and investment, because it supports a further Bank of Japan step. A beat that comes from inventories or weak imports tends to fade.