What is in Tokyo CPI
The Statistics Bureau prices the same kind of basket as for the national index, but only in the ku-area of Tokyo, the 23 special wards at the centre of the city. The results are preliminary figures for the current month.
The release has the same main lines as the national report: all items, all items less fresh food, and all items less fresh food and energy. The market reads the index without fresh food first, the measure called core in Japan.
Why Tokyo CPI moves the yen
The Bank of Japan sets its 2% target on the consumer price index, and each BoJ meeting weighs how close inflation is to it. Tokyo CPI is the first figure for any month, so it shifts what the market expects from the BoJ before the national index can.
A figure above the forecast makes a BoJ rate step look closer, which tends to lift Japanese yields and the yen. A figure below it does the opposite.
How to read Tokyo CPI against the forecast
Read core against the forecast first. Then look at the measure without fresh food and energy, which says more about whether price rises are spreading.
Tokyo is a guide to the national figure, not a copy of it. It is one city, so the national index three weeks later can still surprise.
Check the calendar for the next Bank of Japan meeting. A Tokyo figure that comes out shortly before a decision can be the last inflation number the board sees, and the market weighs it more for that.
What the Japanese yen did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the Japanese yen against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | JPY vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 01:30 | 1 Oct to 2 Oct | +0.36% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.