Japan wage growth: the Monthly Labour Survey and the yen

Japan wage growth is read from the Monthly Labour Survey, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare's monthly count of what Japanese employers pay. The Bank of Japan's case for higher rates rests on wages and prices rising together, so a pay figure that beats or misses the forecast can shift the outlook for BoJ rates and move the yen.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Japan wage growth in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare
When: Monthly, at 8:30 in the morning Tokyo time, early in the second month after the month covered: the November figures, for example, come out in early January. A final report follows about two weeks later. In Amsterdam the first release lands at 01:30 for most of the year and at 00:30 in the European winter, from late October to late March.
Currency: Japanese yen (JPY)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Total cash earnings on the year, then scheduled earnings, the base pay without overtime and bonuses
Covers: Establishments with 5 or more regular employees in 16 industries
Real wages: Pay adjusted for consumer prices, in the same release
Central bank that watches it: The Bank of Japan, which wants wages and prices to rise together

What is in the Japan wage growth figures

The Monthly Labour Survey covers establishments with five or more regular employees in 16 industries, and reports pay, hours and employment. Total cash earnings is the sum of contractual earnings, paid every month under fixed rules, and special earnings such as summer and winter bonuses.

Contractual earnings split into scheduled earnings, the base pay and regular allowances, and overtime pay. Scheduled earnings move slowly and give the cleanest read on the trend in pay.

Real wages are pay adjusted for consumer prices. The ministry deflates by the CPI without the imputed rent of homeowners and, since 2025, also publishes a version that uses the CPI for all items.

Why wages move the yen

The Bank of Japan wants inflation to settle at 2% with pay rising alongside prices, not only because import costs went up. Its statements name firms passing wage increases on to their selling prices as one of the forces it watches.

Firm pay growth strengthens the case for a further BoJ step, which tends to support the yen. Weak pay, or real wages that keep falling, argues for patience.

The base pay rises agreed in each year's spring wage negotiations show up in scheduled earnings in the months that follow. The BoJ tracks that link in its Outlook Report.

How to read Japan wage growth against the forecast

Start with total cash earnings against the forecast, then look past it to scheduled earnings. Bonuses are paid mainly in the summer and winter, so special earnings can swing the total in those months without saying much about the trend.

Each January about a third of the larger establishments in the sample are replaced, and the ministry publishes notes on what the change did to the figures. Comparisons with the year before are less clean around that point.

The first figure is revised in the final report about two weeks later. The BoJ's own Outlook Report leans on scheduled earnings of full-time workers when it judges the trend.

What the Japanese yen did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first Japan wage growth after that date will show here with the Japanese yen's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the Japanese yen moves 0.24% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Japan wage growth

When are Japan wage figures released?

The first Monthly Labour Survey figures come out at 8:30 in the morning Tokyo time, early in the second month after the month they cover. In Amsterdam that is 01:30 for most of the year and 00:30 in the European winter. The final figures follow about two weeks later.

What is total cash earnings?

It is everything employers paid per worker in the month: contractual earnings, which are base pay, allowances and overtime, plus special earnings such as bonuses. It is the headline wage figure in the survey.

Why do real wages matter in Japan?

Real wages show whether pay is keeping up with prices. When they fall, households lose buying power, which weakens the case for the Bank of Japan to keep raising rates.

Why are Japan's wage numbers so volatile?

Bonus months swing special earnings, and the yearly renewal of part of the sample can shift the level. Scheduled earnings, the base pay, are steadier and are the better guide to the trend.