What the Ifo business climate survey asks
Each month the ifo Institute asks firms in manufacturing, services, trade and construction two questions that make up the headline. Is your business situation good, satisfactory or poor? And will it be more favourable, unchanged or more unfavourable over the next six months?
For each question ifo takes the share of positive answers minus the share of negative ones, with each industry weighted by its importance. The business climate is a mean of those two balances, published as an index with 2015 as 100.
The release also gives the climate per sector, so you can see whether a move came from factories, services, trade or building.
Why the Ifo business climate moves the euro
Germany is the largest economy in the euro area. A clear change in how German firms see the next six months is an early sign for growth across the bloc, which feeds into what the market expects from the ECB.
The survey comes out weeks before official data on output and orders for the same month, which is why the market treats it as an early guide.
How to read the Ifo against the forecast
Compare the headline with the forecast, then check which half moved it. A rise driven by expectations says firms see better times ahead; a rise driven by the current situation says things have already improved.
The index is a level against 2015, so a reading below 100 means the climate is weaker than the 2015 average. The change from one month to the next is what moves the euro.
The ZEW survey of financial experts comes out about a week earlier. Traders often compare the two, since one asks investors and the other asks the companies themselves.
What the Euro did on the last release days
Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first Ifo business climate after that date will show here with the Euro's move around it.
For scale: on an ordinary day the Euro moves 0.11% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.