German CPI: what Germany's inflation flash is and how it moves the euro

German CPI, the consumer price index from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), is the first full read each month on inflation in the largest economy of the euro area. It arrives before the eurozone flash, so a surprise often moves the euro and the market's view of the European Central Bank on the day itself.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

German CPI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Destatis, Federal Statistical Office of Germany
When: Monthly. The provisional figure comes shortly before the end of the month it covers, usually at 14:00 German time, which is also 14:00 in Amsterdam. North Rhine-Westphalia publishes its own figure at 10:00 that day. The final result follows around the middle of the next month.
Currency: Euro (EUR)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Annual inflation on the national CPI, then the harmonised HICP and the rate without food and energy
Central bank that watches it: The European Central Bank, through its weight in the euro area figure
Covers: The current month: the September flash comes out at the end of September
Final result: Mid next month; Destatis reports a gap with the flash of 0.1 percentage point at most so far

What is in the German CPI flash

Destatis prices a basket of about 700 types of goods and services, from salt and towels to train tickets and rent. Several hundred thousand individual prices go into it each month, collected in shops across the country and online.

The flash gives the inflation rate on the national CPI, on the year and on the month, and the same two figures for the HICP, the harmonised index used for comparisons across the euro area. It also gives the rate without food and energy, which Destatis calls core inflation, and a split into goods, services, energy and food.

The flash is an estimate. Destatis builds it from the results the federal states have by then, and the final figure follows around the middle of the next month.

Why German CPI moves the euro

The ECB sets one rate for the whole euro area, and its target is set on the euro area HICP. Germany is the largest economy in it, so the German figure is a strong hint for the euro area flash that follows.

That is why the market trades the German number as a preview. A hot German print raises the odds of a hot euro area figure, and with it of a firmer ECB.

How to read German CPI against the forecast

Watch the HICP line as well as the national CPI. Destatis derives both from the same prices, but with different coverage and weights, and the HICP is the measure European monetary policy works with.

Part of the surprise can be known before 14:00. North Rhine-Westphalia, the most populous state, publishes its own figure at 10:00 on the same day.

Energy and food can swing the headline from month to month. A jump driven by fuel tends to fade; a rise in services and in core inflation lasts longer.

What the Euro did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Euro against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	EUR vs basket
30 Sept 2026	14:00	30 Sept to 1 Oct	+0.03%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Euro moves 0.11% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about German CPI

What time is German CPI released?

The flash usually comes at 14:00 German time, which is also 14:00 in Amsterdam and 13:00 in London. It is published shortly before the end of the month it covers. December and February are exceptions, because of the holidays and the short month.

What is the difference between German CPI and German HICP?

The CPI is Germany's national measure of inflation. The HICP is calculated from the same price data with different coverage and weights, so it can be compared across the euro area, and it is the one the ECB works with. The two rates are not always equal.

Why does German CPI move the euro?

Because Germany is the largest economy in the euro area and its figure comes before the euro area flash. A surprise in Germany changes what the market expects for the whole bloc, and with it for the ECB.

Is the German inflation flash revised?

Yes, the final result comes around the middle of the next month. According to Destatis, the gap between the flash and the final figure has been no more than 0.1 percentage point so far.