Eurozone inflation: what the HICP flash estimate is and how it moves the euro

Eurozone inflation is measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, the HICP, and Eurostat's flash estimate is the first read on it each month. It is the index the European Central Bank's 2% target is set on, so a surprise in either direction changes what the market expects from the ECB and moves the euro with it.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Eurozone inflation in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Eurostat
When: Monthly. The flash estimate comes at the end of the month it covers or in the first days of the next, at 11:00 Luxembourg time, which is 11:00 in Amsterdam all year. The full figures follow around the middle of the next month.
Currency: Euro (EUR)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
The line read first: Core inflation: all items without energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, year on year, against the forecast
Central bank that watches it: The European Central Bank, whose 2% target is set on this index
Covers: The current month: the September flash comes at the end of September or early in October

What is in the eurozone inflation flash

The HICP measures the change in the prices households pay for consumer goods and services. Every country compiles its index on the same rules, which is what harmonised means, so the figures can be compared and added together.

The flash gives the annual rate for all items and for four main parts: energy, food alcohol and tobacco, non-energy industrial goods, and services. It also gives the rate without energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, the line most people call core inflation.

Services inflation gets close attention, because it follows wages and is slow to turn.

Why eurozone inflation moves the euro

The ECB defines price stability on this index: 2% over the medium term. A figure above the forecast makes a higher rate, or fewer cuts, more likely, and the euro usually firms. A figure below it does the opposite.

Germany's early estimate normally lands before the euro area flash. By the time Eurostat publishes, the market already has a partial read on the month.

How to read eurozone inflation against the forecast

The market has priced the forecast before 11:00. What moves the euro is the gap between the figure and that forecast, on core and services more than on the headline.

A headline jump driven by energy tends to fade, because a central bank cannot do much about the oil price. A rise in core and in services lasts longer in the price.

The full release around the middle of the next month confirms or revises the flash and adds the detail per country. The flash is the one traders watch, because it comes first.

What the Euro did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Euro against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	EUR vs basket
2 Oct 2026	11:00	still running	pending
17 Sept 2026	12:00	17 Sept to 18 Sept	+0.28%
16 Sept 2026	11:00	16 Sept to 17 Sept	-0.23%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Euro moves 0.11% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Eurozone inflation

What time is eurozone inflation released?

At 11:00 Luxembourg time, which is 11:00 in Amsterdam and 10:00 in London all year. The flash comes at the end of the month it covers or in the first days of the next.

What is the difference between HICP and CPI?

The HICP is the harmonised index every EU country compiles on the same rules, so countries can be compared. Some countries also publish a national CPI with its own coverage and weights; Germany's CPI is one example. The ECB's target is set on the HICP for the euro area.

What is core inflation in the eurozone?

Inflation without energy, food, alcohol and tobacco. Eurostat publishes it in the flash next to the headline rate. It is the better guide to the trend, because it leaves out the parts that swing with oil and harvests.

Does higher eurozone inflation make the euro go up?

Usually, when it is higher than forecast, because it makes a higher ECB rate more likely. A figure that is high but in line with the forecast moves little, since it was already priced.

Is the eurozone inflation flash revised?

It can be. The complete HICP figures come out around the middle of the following month and replace the flash. The flash still moves the market more, because it comes first.