ZEW economic sentiment: what the survey measures and how it moves the euro

ZEW economic sentiment is a monthly survey by the ZEW institute in Mannheim that asks financial market experts whether they expect the German economy to be better or worse in six months. It usually comes out about a week before the ifo business survey, and because it reflects how professional investors see the outlook, a clear surprise can move the euro.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

ZEW economic sentiment in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: ZEW Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim
When: Monthly, usually on a Tuesday around the middle of the month, at 11:05 Frankfurt time. That is also 11:05 in Amsterdam, all year round.
Currency: Euro (EUR)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Economic sentiment for Germany: the six-month outlook, as a balance
Who is asked: Up to 300 financial experts at banks, insurers and large companies
Also in the release: The current situation in Germany, and both readings for the euro area

What the ZEW economic sentiment survey asks

Every month ZEW asks experts at banks, insurance companies and the finance departments of large firms for their view on the economy, inflation, interest rates, stock markets and exchange rates six months ahead. The survey has run since 1991.

The headline is a balance: the share of experts who expect the German economy to improve minus the share who expect it to worsen. A reading of 20 means optimists outnumber pessimists by 20 percentage points; a negative reading means the pessimists are ahead.

The same release gives the assessment of the current situation in Germany, and the outlook and current situation for the euro area.

Why ZEW economic sentiment moves the euro

The experts asked are the same kind of people who trade and invest. Their mood shifts quickly with markets, energy prices and politics, so the ZEW can turn well before slower measures such as industrial output or GDP.

That makes it an early signal for growth in the largest economy of the euro area. Growth feeds into what the market expects from the ECB, and so into the euro.

How to read the ZEW against the forecast

Compare the outlook balance with the forecast, and look at the direction as well as the sign. A rise from minus 30 to minus 10 still means more pessimists than optimists, but the mood is improving.

Read the current situation next to it. An outlook far above the current situation says the experts see a recovery coming; the reverse points to a slowdown.

The ZEW reflects what financial experts think, not what companies report. The ifo survey of firms follows about a week later, and traders compare the two.

What the Euro did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Euro against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	EUR vs basket
15 Sept 2026	11:00	15 Sept to 16 Sept	+0.14%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Euro moves 0.11% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about ZEW economic sentiment

What time is the ZEW released?

At 11:05 Frankfurt time, which is also 11:05 in Amsterdam and 10:05 in London. It usually comes out on a Tuesday around the middle of the month. ZEW fixes the dates for the next year in the autumn.

What does a negative ZEW reading mean?

That more of the experts expect the German economy to get worse over the next six months than expect it to get better. It does not say the economy is shrinking now. A reading that is less negative than the month before still shows the mood improving.

What is the difference between ZEW and ifo?

The ZEW asks financial market experts about the outlook for the economy. The ifo survey asks thousands of companies about their own business. The ZEW comes out first, and the ifo follows about a week later.

How many people take part in the ZEW survey?

ZEW describes its panel as up to 300 experts from banks, insurance companies and the finance departments of selected firms. The survey has run every month since 1991.