Eurozone GDP: what the quarterly growth estimates are and how they move the euro

Eurozone GDP is Eurostat's measure of how much the economy of the euro area grew or shrank in a quarter, published first as a flash estimate about 30 days after the quarter ends. By then surveys such as the PMI have already given a read on the quarter, so it moves the euro mainly when the number breaks with the forecast.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Eurozone GDP in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: Eurostat
When: Quarterly, in three steps: a preliminary flash about 30 days after the quarter ends, a second flash with employment after about 45 days, and a full estimate with the breakdown after about 65 days. Each comes at 11:00 Luxembourg time, which is 11:00 in Amsterdam all year.
Currency: Euro (EUR)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: Growth on the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted, in the preliminary flash
Covers: The quarter before: the flash for July to September comes at the end of October
Revisions: Eurostat's tests put the typical change at the second flash at a tenth of a point or less

What is in the Eurozone GDP release

Gross domestic product is the value of everything an economy produces. Eurostat publishes it for the euro area and for the EU as growth on the previous quarter and on the same quarter a year earlier, adjusted for seasonal patterns.

The preliminary flash, about 30 days after the quarter, gives only those growth rates. Eurostat builds it from the early estimates of the member states, weighted by the size of each economy, and some countries still have to estimate part of the third month.

After about 45 days a second flash adds employment. After about 65 days comes the full picture: household spending, government spending, investment, inventories and trade.

Why Eurozone GDP moves the euro

Growth tells the ECB how much room it has. A weak economy makes lower rates more likely, a strong one keeps them up, and the euro follows that path.

By the time GDP comes out, the market has seen three months of PMI and other surveys for the quarter. That is why the reaction is often smaller than for inflation or for the ECB itself, and largest when the figure breaks with what the surveys suggested.

How to read Eurozone GDP against the forecast

Compare growth on the quarter with the forecast. Quarterly growth figures in the euro area are small, so a gap of a tenth of a percentage point can count as a surprise.

Several member states publish their own first estimates around the same time, and the larger ones weigh most in the total. Part of the surprise can be known before Eurostat publishes.

The later estimates matter less for the euro, unless they change the picture. When Eurostat tested the early flash, it expected the typical change at the second flash to be a tenth of a point or less.

What the Euro did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first Eurozone GDP after that date will show here with the Euro's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the Euro moves 0.11% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Eurozone GDP

When is Eurozone GDP released?

Eurostat publishes three estimates for each quarter: after about 30, 45 and 65 days. Each comes out at 11:00 Luxembourg time, which is 11:00 in Amsterdam and 10:00 in London. The first one, the preliminary flash, is the one the market watches most.

What is the preliminary flash estimate of GDP?

The first estimate of quarterly growth for the euro area and the EU, about 30 days after the quarter ends. It gives growth rates only, built from the member states' own early estimates. The breakdown follows in the later releases.

Does strong Eurozone GDP make the euro go up?

Usually, when it beats the forecast, because stronger growth makes lower ECB rates less likely. A figure that only confirms what the PMI surveys already said tends to move it little.

Is Eurozone GDP revised?

Yes, at each later step. Eurostat expected the change from the first to the second flash to be no more than a tenth of a percentage point in a typical quarter.