Canada PMI: the S&P Global manufacturing survey and the Canadian dollar

The Canada PMI is S&P Global's monthly survey of purchasing managers at Canadian manufacturers, read as a single index on which 50 separates growth from contraction. It is one of the first reads on each month for the Canadian economy, and a reading that crosses 50 or lands far from the forecast can nudge the Canadian dollar.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

Canada PMI in short

Next release: Not on our calendar yet. It appears once the date is confirmed.
Published by: S&P Global
When: Monthly, usually on the first working day of the month, at 9:30 in the morning Eastern time. That is 15:30 in Amsterdam for most of the year, and 14:30 in the few weeks when Canada and Europe have changed their clocks on different dates.
Currency: Canadian dollar (CAD)
Impact: Medium: it moves the currency when it surprises
The line read first: The headline PMI against 50 and against the forecast
Panel: Around 400 Canadian manufacturers
Covers: The month just ended, with answers collected in its second half
Not to be confused with: The Ivey PMI, a separate survey from the Ivey Business School

What is in the Canada PMI

S&P Global sends a questionnaire to purchasing managers at a panel of around 400 manufacturers, chosen by sector and company size to reflect Canadian industry. The answers are collected in the second half of the month, and each one says only whether a measure rose, fell or stayed the same against the month before.

The headline PMI is a weighted average of five parts: new orders 30%, output 25%, employment 20%, suppliers' delivery times 15% and stocks of purchases 10%. A reading above 50 means conditions improved on the month; below 50 means they got worse.

The release also covers prices, both what firms pay for inputs and what they charge. S&P Global publishes a separate Canada Services PMI a few days later.

Why the Canada PMI moves the Canadian dollar

The PMI is out within days of the month ending, weeks before the official figures on output. That makes it an early sign of where growth is heading.

The survey also asks about supply chains and prices. It can pick up a shock such as new tariffs before the official data do.

It is a medium-impact release for the loonie and rarely moves the currency the way CPI or the jobs report do. It usually comes out on the same day as the US ISM manufacturing index, half an hour earlier, so the two are often read together.

How to read the Canada PMI against the forecast

Look at the side of 50 first, then the distance from the forecast. A move across 50 tends to get more attention than a change of the same size that stays on one side.

Then read the parts. Longer delivery times push the headline up, so a PMI held up by slow suppliers or by stockbuilding says less than one carried by new orders.

The prices that firms report paying are a hint of what may later show up in Canada CPI. A single month rarely changes the outlook for Bank of Canada rates on its own.

What the Canadian dollar did on the last release days

Measured on our own prices: the Canadian dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.

Release	Amsterdam	Measured	CAD vs basket
1 Oct 2026	15:30	1 Oct to 2 Oct	-0.02%

For scale: on an ordinary day the Canadian dollar moves 0.16% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about Canada PMI

What time is the Canada PMI released?

At 9:30 in the morning Eastern time, usually on the first working day of the month. In Amsterdam that is 15:30 for most of the year and 14:30 in the weeks when Canada and Europe change their clocks on different dates.

What does a Canada PMI above 50 mean?

That manufacturing conditions improved on the month before, on balance across the five parts of the index. Below 50 means they got worse. The further from 50, the more widely the change was reported.

What is the difference between the Canada PMI and the Ivey PMI?

The Canada PMI on this page is S&P Global's manufacturing survey, built from five parts with fixed weights. The Ivey PMI is a separate index from the Ivey Business School that asks purchasing managers whether their purchases in dollars were higher, the same or lower than the month before.

Is there a Canada services PMI?

Yes. S&P Global also publishes a Canada Services PMI, from a panel of around 400 service companies, a few days after the manufacturing figure.