What is in ANZ business confidence
Business confidence is the share of firms expecting general business conditions to improve over the next 12 months, minus the share expecting them to get worse. Own activity outlook asks the same about the firm's own business.
The survey also asks about employment, investment, exports, profits, credit and capacity. Since 2019 it has asked firms how their activity compares with a year ago, and ANZ sets that past activity line against GDP.
Its inflation questions cover expected inflation a year ahead, the prices firms plan to charge in the next three months and the costs they expect to pay.
Why ANZ business confidence moves the Kiwi
It is the first broad read on each month in New Zealand, published before the month has ended. When confidence and activity expectations rise, the market expects stronger growth and a higher OCR, which tends to support the Kiwi.
The pricing questions matter in their own right. They show whether firms plan to raise prices, which feeds the RBNZ's view of where inflation is heading.
How to read the ANZ survey
Read the change from the previous month and the level against its own history. A net balance above zero means more optimists than pessimists, not that the economy is growing fast.
Look past the headline to own activity, employment and pricing intentions. Confidence about the economy in general can swing with the news, while firms' answers about their own business are closer to what they will do.
ANZ notes that the survey is not a random sample. It has more manufacturing and professional services firms than the economy as a whole, and fewer from agriculture, and ANZ asks users to keep that in mind.
Most answers come in early in the month. When news breaks mid-month, ANZ sometimes shows early and late responses apart, which helps to see how firms reacted.
What the New Zealand dollar did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the New Zealand dollar against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | NZD vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sept 2026 | 02:00 | 29 Sept to 30 Sept | -0.06% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the New Zealand dollar moves 0.20% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.