RBNZ rate decision: how the Reserve Bank of New Zealand moves the Kiwi

The RBNZ rate decision is the moment the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sets the Official Cash Rate (OCR), the rate it charges banks to borrow from it and the base for New Zealand mortgage and savings rates. It is the biggest scheduled event for the New Zealand dollar, the Kiwi. The currency often moves more on the bank's projected path for the OCR and on how the committee was split than on the decision itself.

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By Mike. Explanation updated 2 Oct 2026; the dates and moves below update with the research.

RBNZ rate decision in short

Next release: Wednesday, 28 October 2026At the usual time, see below. The exact moment appears here in the week itself.
Published by: Reserve Bank of New Zealand
When: Eight scheduled decisions a year from 2027, up from seven in 2026, at 2:00 in the afternoon New Zealand time, with a media conference at 3:00. In Amsterdam that is the middle of the night: 04:00 from April to September and 02:00 from November to March. In the weeks when only one of the two has changed its clocks, from late September to late October and around the turn of March and April, it is 03:00.
Currency: New Zealand dollar (NZD)
Impact: High: one of the releases that can move the currency on its own
What is decided: The Official Cash Rate, the rate the RBNZ charges banks to borrow from it
Who decides: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
Target: Annual CPI inflation of 1 to 3% over the medium term, with a focus on 2%
Comes with: A record of the meeting, a media conference at 3pm, and four times a year the Monetary Policy Statement with forecasts

What the RBNZ rate decision contains

Each decision is published at 2pm as a media release with the new OCR and the reasons for it. A summary record of the meeting comes with it. The record says whether the Monetary Policy Committee agreed by consensus or by a vote, and how members saw the risks to inflation.

Four of the eight decisions a year come with a Monetary Policy Statement: the bank's full forecasts, including its central projection for the OCR itself. The other four come with a shorter Monetary Policy Review, without published forecasts. Every decision is followed by a media conference at 3pm.

The committee can also change the OCR between the scheduled dates when conditions call for it, and it has done so in the past.

Why the RBNZ moves the New Zealand dollar

A higher OCR makes holding New Zealand dollars pay more, which draws money in. A lower one does the opposite. The Kiwi is widely traded on the gap between New Zealand rates and rates abroad, so a change in what the market expects from the RBNZ reaches the currency quickly.

Most decisions are priced well before 2pm. What moves the Kiwi is the part that was not: a split vote, a projected OCR path above or below what the market had, or a change in tone about inflation.

Since December 2023 the remit focuses on low and stable inflation, after the Minister of Finance removed maximum sustainable employment from it. Jobs and growth still matter, but through what they say about future inflation.

How to read an RBNZ decision

Start with what was priced the day before. A hike that was fully expected can still send the Kiwi lower if the projected OCR path comes in below what the market had.

On Statement days, compare the new OCR projection with the previous one and with market pricing. That track often decides the move more than the decision of the day.

Then read the record of the meeting. A vote such as 5 to 1, or members who saw the risks on the other side, hints at where the next decision could go.

For traders in Europe all of this happens at night, so the first move has usually played out before the European morning. The media conference an hour after the decision can still change that first reaction.

What the New Zealand dollar did on the last release days

Our calendar keeps the exact time of each release since 16 September 2026. The first RBNZ rate decision after that date will show here with the New Zealand dollar's move around it.

For scale: on an ordinary day the New Zealand dollar moves 0.20% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.

The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.

Questions about the RBNZ rate decision

What time is the RBNZ rate decision?

At 2:00 in the afternoon New Zealand time, with a media conference at 3:00. In Amsterdam that is 04:00 from April to September and 02:00 from November to March. In the weeks when only one of the two countries has changed its clocks, it is 03:00.

How often does the RBNZ decide on the OCR?

Eight times a year from 2027, up from seven in 2026. Four of those decisions come with a Monetary Policy Statement and new forecasts. The committee can also decide outside the schedule.

What is the RBNZ's inflation target?

Annual CPI inflation between 1 and 3% over the medium term, with a focus on keeping it near the 2% midpoint. The Minister of Finance sets the target in the committee's remit.

Does the RBNZ publish a forecast for its own rate?

Yes. Each Monetary Policy Statement includes the committee's central projection for the OCR. The market compares that path with its own pricing, and a gap between the two can move the Kiwi more than the decision.

What is the difference between a Monetary Policy Statement and a Monetary Policy Review?

The Statement is the full report four times a year, with new forecasts. The Review comes with the decisions in between and explains the decision without published forecasts.