What is in the Swiss CPI report
The Federal Statistical Office prices a fixed basket of goods and services every month, from food and rents to transport, healthcare and holidays. The headline index is published as a change on the month and on the same month a year earlier.
Core inflation, called core inflation 1 by the FSO, leaves out fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel. It says more about the trend than the headline does.
The release also splits prices by origin. Domestic products make up close to four fifths of the basket and imported products about a fifth.
The FSO publishes a Swiss HICP at the same time, built on the European method. It is there for comparison with euro area countries; the market and the SNB read the CPI.
Why Swiss CPI moves the franc
The SNB equates price stability with CPI inflation of less than 2% a year, and it treats a lasting fall in prices as a breach too. A figure above the forecast makes a higher SNB rate more likely and tends to lift the franc; a figure below it does the opposite.
Swiss inflation has stayed below 2% in most years of the past decade. That keeps the lower edge in play: a soft figure raises the odds of a rate cut or of SNB purchases of foreign currency, both of which weigh on the franc.
The franc itself feeds into the index. As a safe haven it tends to rise when markets are under stress, and a stronger franc makes imported goods cheaper in francs, which pulls the CPI down months later.
How to read Swiss CPI against the forecast
The market prices the forecast before the release. What moves the franc is the distance between the figure and that forecast, and with inflation this low, one tenth of a percent is a large miss.
Compare the figure with the SNB's own conditional inflation forecast from its last quarterly assessment as well. A string of figures below that path makes the next decision easier to call.
Then look at where the surprise came from. A move in imported prices often traces back to oil or to the franc and can reverse, while domestic prices, mostly services and rents, change slowly and tell the SNB more.
Rents are surveyed once a quarter, in February, May, August and November. In those months the rent update can move the total on its own.
What the Swiss franc did on the last release days
Measured on our own prices: the Swiss franc against the basket of the eight majors, from the London opening before the release to the one after it, so the release sits inside the window. Anything else that came out between those two openings is in it too, so a day with more news says less about this release alone.
| Release | Amsterdam | Measured | CHF vs basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Oct 2026 | 08:30 | 30 Sept to 1 Oct | +0.35% |
For scale: on an ordinary day the Swiss franc moves 0.17% against the basket from one London opening to the next, either way, on average over the 250 trading days since 14 Oct 2025.
The forecast, the figure itself and what it changed in our view of the currency are in the app, next to the research.